Multi‐decadal variability of drought risk, eastern Australia
Multi‐decadal variability of drought risk, eastern Australia
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.1460
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发表时间：
2004-08
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
A. Kiem;S. Franks
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Kiem;S. Franks
以前的一些研究已经确定了气候在十年到几十年的时间尺度上发生的变化。最近的研究还显示，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对澳大利亚和其他地区降雨量和水流的影响具有数十年的变异性。这项研究通过分析澳大利亚新南威尔士州一个蓄水池在不同气候时期的表现，研究了干旱风险的数十年变异性，该蓄水池采用年代际太平洋涛动(IPO)指数定义。还分析了在三种适应性管理技术下的油藏性能，并将这些技术与使用当前“反应性”管理实践的油藏性能进行了比较。结果表明，IPO对ENSO事件的大小和频率的调制在多个年代际尺度上都具有降低和提高干旱风险的作用。结果还证实，基于ENSO预测的适应性水库管理技术可以改善干旱安全，并在干旱气候时期变得更加重要。这些结果对提高蓄水水库的抗旱安全性具有重要意义。版权所有©2004 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
A number of previous studies have identified changes in the climate occurring on decadal to multi‐decadal time‐scales. Recent studies also have revealed multi‐decadal variability in the modulation of the magnitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall and stream flow in Australia and other areas. This study investigates multi‐decadal variability of drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storage reservoir in New South Wales, Australia, during different climate epochs defined using the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The performance of the reservoir is also analysed under three adaptive management techniques and these are compared with the reservoir performance using the current ‘reactive’ management practices. The results indicate that IPO modulation of both the magnitude and frequency of ENSO events has the effect of reducing and elevating drought risk on multi‐decadal time‐scales. The results also confirm that adaptive reservoir management techniques, based on ENSO forecasts, can improve drought security and become significantly more important during dry climate epochs. These results have marked implications for improving drought security for water storage reservoirs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.