More on recent evidence on the effects of minimum wages in the United States
More on recent evidence on the effects of minimum wages in the United States
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有关美国最低工资影响的最新证据的更多信息
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Wascher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Neumark;J. I. Salas;W. Wascher
在估计最低工资的就业影响时，一个核心问题是采用或提高最低工资的州（或其他地区）的适当比较组。在最近的研究中，Dube等人（Rev Econ Stat 92：945-964，2010）和Allegretto等人（Ind Relat 50：205-240，2011）认为，过去的美国研究存在缺陷，因为它没有将比较区域限制在地理上接近的区域，并且未能控制与最低工资增加相关的低技能劳动力市场的变化。他们认为，使用“地方控制”确定了较高的最低工资不会减少低技能工人的就业。在Neumark等人（Ind Labor Relat Rev 67：608-648，2014）中，我们提出了证据，证明他们的方法未能分离出更可靠的识别信息，并导致错误的结论。此外，对于治疗组的亚组，他们使用的识别变异得到了数据的支持，证据与过去的失业影响的发现是一致的。Allegretto SA，Dube A，赖希M，Zipperer B（2013 a）可信的最低工资研究设计。IZA第7638号讨论文件（德国波恩）对我们的结论提出了质疑，继续就选择比较组估计最低工资影响的一些关键问题进行辩论。我们解释这些问题并评估证据。总的来说，我们发现他们的分析和结论几乎没有依据，并认为最好的证据仍然指向低技能工人的最低工资-特别是青少年-的失业。
A central issue in estimating the employment effects of minimum wages is the appropriate comparison group for states (or other regions) that adopt or increase the minimum wage. In recent research, Dube et al. (Rev Econ Stat 92:945-964, 2010) and Allegretto et al. (Ind Relat 50:205-240, 2011) argue that past U.S. research is flawed because it does not restrict comparison areas to those that are geographically proximate and fails to control for changes in low-skill labor markets that are correlated with minimum wage increases. They argue that using “local controls” establishes that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment of less-skilled workers. In Neumark et al. (Ind Labor Relat Rev 67:608-648, 2014), we present evidence that their methods fail to isolate more reliable identifying information and lead to incorrect conclusions. Moreover, for subsets of treatment groups where the identifying variation they use is supported by the data, the evidence is consistent with past findings of disemployment effects. Allegretto SA, Dube A, Reich M, Zipperer B (2013a) Credible research designs for minimum wage studies. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7638, Bonn, Germany have challenged our conclusions, continuing the debate regarding some key issues regarding choosing comparison groups for estimating minimum wage effects. We explain these issues and evaluate the evidence. In general, we find little basis for their analyses and conclusions and argue that the best evidence still points to job loss from minimum wages for very low-skilled workers – in particular, for teens.JEL codesJ23; J38