A Tempo-geographic Analysis of Global COVID-19 Epidemic Outside of China.
A Tempo-geographic Analysis of Global COVID-19 Epidemic Outside of China.
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中国以外全球 COVID-19 疫情的时空地理分析。
DOI：
10.1101/2020.03.20.20039602
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tang,Weiming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liao,Huipeng;Marley,Gifty;Si,Yafei;Wang,Zaisheng;Xie,Yewei;Wang,Cheng;Tang,Weiming
背景了解COVID-19的全球流行趋势、地理分布和传播模式有助于为全球应对疫情提供及时信息。本研究旨在了解全球大流行的地理空间模式和趋势，并确定需要紧急关注的新震中。方法包括2019年12月31日至2020年3月14日期间的COVID-19数据。流行趋势采用联合点回归分析，受影响国家的增长情况采用描述性分析;结果2月24日以前中国以外地区新发病例数缓慢上升，2月24日以后迅速加速，与中国相比，其他受影响的国家经历了较长时间的早期缓慢增长和后期快速增长。受影响国家数量的第一次明显增加发生在1月23日至2月1日，第二次明显增加从2月25日开始。2月28日以来各国报告的首例COVID-19病例主要来自欧洲。地理分布从单中心（1月13日至2月20日）多中心模式（2月20日至3月14日）。更多国家受COVID-19影响并发展本地传播。诠释联点回归及地理空间分析显示COVID-19呈多中心大流行。需要防止新的多中心以及防止持续传播的策略。资金来源：NIH。
BackgroundUnderstanding the global epidemic trends, geographic distribution, and transmission patterns of COVID-19 contribute to providing timely information for the global response of the epidemic. This study aims to understand the global pandemic geospatial patterns and trends and identify new epicenters requiring urgent attention.MethodsData on COVID-19 between 31st Dec. 2019 and 14th Mar. 2020 was included. The epidemic trend was analyzed using joinpoint regressions; the growth of affected countries was by descriptive analysis; and the global distribution and transmission trend by spatial analysis.FindingsThe number of new cases in the regions outside of China slowly increased before 24th Feb. and rapidly accelerated after 24th Feb. Compared to China, other affected countries experienced a longer duration of a slow increase at the early stage and rapid growth at the latter stages. The first apparent increase in the number of affected countries occurred from 23rd Jan to 1st Feb, and the second apparent increase started from 25th Feb. The fist COVID-19 cases reported by countries from 28th Feb. were mainly imported from Europe. The geographic distribution changed from single-center (13th Jan. - 20th Feb.) to multi-centers pattern (20th Feb. – 14th Mar.). More countries were affected with COVID-19 and developed local transmission.InterpretationThe joinpoint regression and geospatial analysis indicated a multi-center pandemic of COVID-19. Strategies to prevent the new multiple centers as well as prevent ongoing transmission are needed. Funding: NIH.