Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China
Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China
复制标题
中国主粮作物生产力适应未来气候变化的预测分析
DOI：
10.1007/s00484-017-1322-4
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Wang Guocheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Qing;Zhang Wen;Li Tingting;Sun Wenjuan;Yu Yongqiang;Wang Guocheng
气候变化不断影响我们养活不断增长的人口的能力。气温上升有可能缩短作物生长期，从而降低作物产量。在过去的几十年里，中国成功地改良了作物品种，稳定甚至延长了作物的生长期，以利用不断增加的热量资源。然而，由于中国不同地区的复杂种植系统，调节作物生长期以减少未来气候变化的负面影响的可能性和有效性仍然存在疑问。本文利用模型方法对中国双季稻、小麦-水稻、小麦-玉米、单季稻和单季玉米种植制度下的主要粮食作物生产力进行了投影分析。结果表明，从现在到2040年代，气候变暖将使当前水稻、小麦和玉米品种的生育期分别缩短2 - 24天、11 - 13天和9 - 29天。作物生育期缩短最明显的是东北地区，那里的农田主要是单季稻和单季玉米。作物生长期的缩短会降低作物的产量。双季稻轮作中晚季作物、冬小麦-稻轮作中小麦和单季玉米的减产幅度最大，分别为27 - 31%、6 - 20%和7 - 22%。然而，我们的预测分析也表明，气候变暖的负面影响可以通过改进作物品种来稳定作物的生长期来补偿。在这种情况下，到21世纪40年代，水稻、小麦和玉米的生产率将分别提高4 - 16%、31 - 38%和11 - 12%。我们的模拟结果表明，在中国，通过采取适当的适应选择来确保未来粮食生产的可能性是存在的。
Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2–24, 11–13, and 9–29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27–31, 6–20, and 7–22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4–16, 31–38, and 11–12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.