Electricity Load Implications of Space Heating Decarbonization Pathways
Electricity Load Implications of Space Heating Decarbonization Pathways
复制标题
空间供暖脱碳途径的电力负荷影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.joule.2019.11.011
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
39.8
通讯作者：
V. Modi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michael Waite;V. Modi
我们调查了在气候多样的美国建立空间加热脱碳途径的影响。我们计算出，“全电动”方法可能需要全国电力系统容量增加70%。新的峰值负载将是高度异质的（例如，4-在某些州增加一倍），负荷系数非常低（每年不到100个满载小时）。在不增加峰值负荷的情况下，目前可用的电热泵可以将化石燃料减少到总供热能源供应的43%（目前为70%）。未来热泵技术的进步可能会将这一比例进一步降低到23%;然而，一些具有挑战性的地区仍将存在。我们发现，安装热泵和保留一些化石燃料设备，只在最冷的天气使用，可以减少化石燃料的热能的1%-3%，同时逐步减少化石燃料的供热能力，避免电力容量升级。因此，战略性地利用传统基础设施可以促进更灵活地过渡到低碳供暖。
We investigate implications of building space heating decarbonization pathways across the climate-diverse United States. We compute that an "all-electric" approach could require a 70% increase in nationwide electricity system capacity. New peak loads would be highly heterogeneous (e.g., 4-fold increase in some states) with very low load factors (fewer than 100 full load hours annually). Without increasing peak loads, currently available electric heat pumps can reduce fossil fuels to 43% of total heating energy supply (currently 70%). Future advances in heat pump technology could reduce this further to 23%; however, several challenging regions would remain. We show that installing heat pumps and retaining some fossil fuel equipment for use in only the coldest weather could reduce fossil fuels to 1%–3% of heating energy while progressively reducing fossil fuel heating capacity and avoiding electricity capacity upgrades. Therefore, strategic use of legacy infrastructure could facilitate a more flexible transition to low-carbon heating.