How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
复制标题
蚊子将如何适应气候变暖？
DOI：
10.7554/elife.69630
复制
发表时间：
2021-08-17
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Mordecai EA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Couper LI;Farner JE;Caldwell JM;Childs ML;Harris MJ;Kirk DG;Nova N;Shocket M;Skinner EB;Uricchio LH;Exposito-Alonso M;Mordecai EA
适应性进化的潜力，使物种在不断变化的气候下的持久性是了解未来气候变化的影响的最重要的问题之一。气候适应可能特别适合于短寿命的外温动物，包括许多害虫、病原体和病媒物种。对于这些分类群，估计气候适应潜力对于准确的预测建模和公共卫生准备至关重要。在这里，我们演示了如何保护生物学进化救援模型中使用的一个简单的理论框架，可以用来调查这些类群的气候适应的潜力，蚊子热适应作为一个焦点案件。综合目前的证据，我们发现，短的蚊子世代时间，高人口增长率，和强大的温度施加的选择有利于热适应。然而，有关蚊子种群耐热性的表型和基因型变异程度、选择的环境敏感性以及表型可塑性的作用的知识缺口限制了我们做出更精确估计的能力。我们描述了如何常见的花园和选择实验可以用来填补这些数据空白。最后，我们以巴西北方埃及伊蚊传播的登革热病毒为案例研究，探讨了蚊子气候适应对疾病传播的影响。这里概述的方法可适用于任何病媒或害虫物种和环境变化类型。
The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.