Application of System Dynamics to Corporate Strategy: An Evolution of Issues and Frameworks
Application of System Dynamics to Corporate Strategy: An Evolution of Issues and Frameworks
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系统动力学在企业战略中的应用：问题和框架的演变
DOI：
10.1002/sdr.373
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
H. Weil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Weil
摘要本文讨论了五个具有里程碑意义的项目，这些项目突出了问题，并产生了框架，这些框架成为系统动力学应用于企业战略的重要组成部分。早期的模型主要是在公司层面。本文描述的第一个模型捕捉了相互冲突的业绩目标之间的紧张关系，并显示了冲突如何影响中期公司业绩。第二个模型代表了研发组织应对企业管理层不断变化的压力和方向时的行为。随着时间的推移，重点转移到市场行为和竞争。第三个模型解释了导致产品和服务“商品化”的强大的长期动力。最近的工作分析了市场的社会动态，例如，因为它们影响创新和技术替代。本文的第四个模型代表了创新产业的基本动力，建立在广泛的研究和出版物的基础上。最后一个模型侧重于社会因素对市场的影响，例如，信任、时尚、领先用户的特征、如何感知和推断趋势、信息流、潮流效应和网络效应。这一进展始于经典的工业动力学，即专注于订单、生产和出货的公司模型。在每一个里程碑，更多的行为丰富性和复杂性得到了认可和代表。我们现在知道什么，我们不知道什么时候该领域成立五十年前？最重要的课程是关于组织，社会和心理因素在重要的商业决策，竞争行为和市场演变中的关键作用。
Abstract This paper discusses five landmark projects which highlighted issues and produced frameworks that became important building blocks in the application of System Dynamics to corporate strategy. The early models were primarily at the level of the firm. The first model described in the paper captures the tension among conflicting performance objectives and shows how the conflicts impact mid-term company performance. The second model represents the behavior of an R&D organization as it responds to changing pressures and direction from corporate management. Over time the focus shifted to market behavior and competition. The third model explains powerful long-term dynamics that lead to “commoditization" of products and services. Recent work analyzed the social dynamics of markets, e.g., as they affect innovation and technology substitution. The fourth model in the paper represents the fundamental dynamics of innovative industries, building on an extensive body of research and publications. The final model focuses on the market impacts of social factors, e.g., trust, fashion, the characteristics of lead users, how trends are perceived and extrapolated, the flow of information, bandwagon effects, and network effects. The progression started with classical Industrial Dynamics, models of the firm which focused on orders, production, and shipments. At each milestone more behavioral richness and complexity were recognized and represented. What do we know now that we did not know when the field was founded fifty years ago? The most important lessons are about the critical roles of organizational, social, and psychological factors in important business decisions, competitive behaviors, and the evolution of markets.