Transportation network vulnerability analysis for the case of a catastrophic earthquake
Transportation network vulnerability analysis for the case of a catastrophic earthquake
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.01.009
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发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Navid Khademi;Behrooz Balaei;M. Shahri;M. Mirzaei;B. Sarrafi;Moeid Zahabiun;A. S. Mohaymany
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文献类型：
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作者：
Navid Khademi;Behrooz Balaei;M. Shahri;M. Mirzaei;B. Sarrafi;Moeid Zahabiun;A. S. Mohaymany
本文的目的是对德黑兰这一发展中国家地震多发的大都市所设计的应急交通网络进行灾后脆弱性分析。德黑兰的情况有些令人沮丧，因为它的发展随心所欲，几乎没有注意到建筑和建筑法规，这使得建筑物、交通路线和居民容易受到伤害。本文试图说明在发展中国家开展交通脆弱性分析所面临的挑战，特别是作为地震多发地区的主要人口中心的发展中国家。在发展中国家发生特大地震后，传统的网络分析方法可能不再适用，因为首先，灾后出行需求可以从根本上改变日常出行需求，而且在高度不确定的情况下，出行需求的预测似乎是不可能的。其次，乘客的行为可能不理性。本着这一思路，本文对大德黑兰地区的城市地震灾害预防与管理进行了全面研究。本文提出了一种通过识别基于冗余的隔离措施来评估震后响应和恢复路线的方法，以找出该市哪些地区最容易受到毁灭性地震造成的交通系统中断的影响，以及在震后超级混乱的情况下，哪些应急出行最容易受到影响。
The aim of this paper is to propose a post-disaster vulnerability analysis for the designed emergency transportation networks in Tehran, an earthquake-prone metropolis in a developing country. The situation of Tehran is somewhat disheartening as it has developed haphazardly with little attention to construction and building codes, which leaves structures, transportation routes, and residents vulnerable. This paper attempts to demonstrate the challenges of trying to develop transportation vulnerability analysis in a developing country, especially one as a major population center in a geographic area prone to earthquakes. After a catastrophic earthquake in a developing country, the conventional network analysis methods may not be employed because first, the post disaster travel demand can be fundamentally altered from the usual daily travel demand and, perhaps, the forecast of the trip demand in the highly uncertain condition seems impossible. Second, the behavior of passengers may not be rational. In line with this idea, a comprehensive study on urban seismic disaster prevention and management for the greater Tehran is held in this paper. This paper proposes an approach to evaluate post-earthquake response and recovery routes by identifying redundancy-based isolation measures to find out which zones in this city are most susceptible to disruptions of the transport system due to a devastating earthquake, and which emergency response trips are most vulnerable in the super-chaotic situation after the earthquake.