Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making.
Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/0272989x211028236
复制
发表时间：
2022-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Taylor A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bojke L;Soares MO;Claxton K;Colson A;Fox A;Jackson C;Jankovic D;Morton A;Sharples LD;Taylor A
用于告知医疗保健决策（HCDM）的证据通常是不确定的。在这种情况下，专家的经验对帮助决策者作出决定至关重要。结构化专家启发（简称启发）是一个定量的过程，以捕捉专家的信念。HCDM中使用的现有启发方法存在异质性，目前尚不清楚现有指南是否适用于这种情况。在这篇文章中，我们试图建立参考案例方法，启发通知HCDM。我们整理的方法，可用于启发使用评论和批评。此外，我们进行了对照实验，以测试替代方法的准确性。我们确定了适用于HCDM中使用的方法选择，根据一组预定义的原则，在HCDM中，我们也产生了启发。我们确定了卫生技术评估（HTA）中HCDM的参考案例启发方法。在几乎所有的方法选择可供启发，我们发现缺乏经验证据支持的建议。尽管如此，为HTA定义参考案例方法是可能的。参考方法包括侧重于收集对所引出的数量具有实质性知识的专家，而不是那些受过概率和统计学培训的专家，引出专家可能直接观察到的数量，以及个人的信念引出，而不仅仅是共识方法。卫生保健决策者在卫生技术评估之外可能还有其他考虑。这里开发的参考案例允许使用不同的方法，这取决于决策设置。启发式方法的进一步应用实例将是有用的。应提供比较各种方法的实验证据。
The evidence used to inform health care decision making (HCDM) is typically uncertain. In these situations, the experience of experts is essential to help decision makers reach a decision. Structured expert elicitation (referred to as elicitation) is a quantitative process to capture experts’ beliefs. There is heterogeneity in the existing elicitation methodology used in HCDM, and it is not clear if existing guidelines are appropriate for use in this context. In this article, we seek to establish reference case methods for elicitation to inform HCDM. We collated the methods available for elicitation using reviews and critique. In addition, we conducted controlled experiments to test the accuracy of alternative methods. We determined the suitability of the methods choices for use in HCDM according to a predefined set of principles for elicitation in HCDM, which we have also generated. We determined reference case methods for elicitation in HCDM for health technology assessment (HTA). In almost all methods choices available for elicitation, we found a lack of empirical evidence supporting recommendations. Despite this, it is possible to define reference case methods for HTA. The reference methods include a focus on gathering experts with substantive knowledge of the quantities being elicited as opposed to those trained in probability and statistics, eliciting quantities that the expert might observe directly, and individual elicitation of beliefs, rather than solely consensus methods. It is likely that there are additional considerations for decision makers in health care outside of HTA. The reference case developed here allows the use of different methods, depending on the decision-making setting. Further applied examples of elicitation methods would be useful. Experimental evidence comparing methods should be generated.