A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil
A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil
复制标题
共同制定海平面上升适应偏好的全球可部署战略：巴西桑托斯的公众参与案例
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-017-2855-x
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Marengo J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marengo J
海平面上升对世界各地沿海地区的自然和建筑环境构成了一系列威胁。评估沿海社区对沿海洪水的暴露风险和敏感性对于知情决策至关重要。促进公众了解和认识气候变化的实际影响的战略是制定政策选择的根本。一个由来自美国、英国和巴西的自然和社会科学家组成的多学科多国团队制定了“大都会项目”，以评估地方政府如何在与SLR预测相关的适应方案之间做出决定。METROPOLE开发了一种参与式方法，其中公共行为者充分参与确定研究问题和评估结果。通过对巴西桑托斯市的案例研究，METROPOLE开发了一种与社区共同评估风险的方法，将“不采取行动”与“适应”情景进行比较。分析的核心是根据SLR预测，对2050年和2100年洪水对城市房地产影响的经济成本进行估计。结果有助于确定适应规划的广泛偏好和方向，包括桑托斯市政府在内的社区与自然和社会科学家共同努力制定了适应规划。
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments in coastal zones around the world. Assessment of the risks due to exposure and sensitivity of coastal communities to coastal flooding is essential for informed decision-making. Strategies for public understanding and awareness of the tangible effects of climate change are fundamental in developing policy options. A multidisciplinary, multinational team of natural and social scientists from the USA, the UK, and Brazil developed the METROPOLE Project to evaluate how local governments may decide between adaptation options associated with SLR projections. METROPOLE developed a participatory approach in which public actors engage fully in defining the research problem and evaluating outcomes. Using a case study of the city of Santos, in Brazil, METROPOLE developed a method for evaluating risks jointly with the community, comparing ‘no-action’ to ‘adaptation’ scenarios. At the core of the analysis are estimates of economic costs of the impact of floods on urban real estate under SLR projections through 2050 and 2100. Results helped identify broad preferences and orientations in adaptation planning, which the community, including the Santos municipal government, co-developed in a joint effort with natural and social scientists.