Advances in Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales during 2019–2022
Advances in Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales during 2019–2022
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.004
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发表时间：
2023-06
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
C. Schreck;F. Vitart;S. Camargo;J. Camp;James W. E. Darlow;R. Elsberry;J. Gottschalck;P. Gregory;K. Hansen;Justyn D. Jackson;M. Janiga;P. Klotzbach;Chia-ying Lee;L. Long;M. Nakano;Kazuto Takemura;Y. Takaya;Michael J. Ventrice;Zhuo Wang
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作者：
C. Schreck;F. Vitart;S. Camargo;J. Camp;James W. E. Darlow;R. Elsberry;J. Gottschalck;P. Gregory;K. Hansen;Justyn D. Jackson;M. Janiga;P. Klotzbach;Chia-ying Lee;L. Long;M. Nakano;Kazuto Takemura;Y. Takaya;Michael J. Ventrice;Zhuo Wang
本文综述了近四年来对热带气旋亚季节变化的认识和预报的进展。科学界一直在努力了解在亚季节时间尺度上的可预测性来源，而不是众所周知的Madden-Julian Oscillation（MJO）对TC活动的调制。特别是，北半球夏季季节内振荡（BSISO）对北太平洋西部TC活动的强烈调制已被记录在案。在了解热带-热带外相互作用在改进亚季节预报方面的作用方面也取得了进展。此外，最近的一些出版物表明，外对流波破碎可能有一个作用的成因和发展的TC。对多模式集合数据集（如亚季节到季节（S2 S）和亚季节实验（SubX））的分析表明，S2 S模式在预测TC成因方面的技能在模式和区域之间差异很大，但通常与它们模拟MJO及其影响的能力有关。在选择模型的技能，导致在过去的四年中，使用各种技术（统计，南极动力和动力）发布亚季节TC预报的预报中心的数量有所增加。在过去四年中发表了更广泛的核查研究报告，但往往只涉及北大西洋和北太平洋东部。
This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability during the past four years. A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In particular, the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Pacific by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) has been documented. Progress has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal forecasts. In addition, several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of TCs. Analyses of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its impacts. The skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques (statistical, statistical-dynamical and dynamical). More extensive verification studies have been published over the last four years, but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific.