Reply to `A Second Opinion on “Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Some Thoughts on Why and How,” by Thomas H. Jordan and Lucile M. Jones,' by Stuart Crampin
Reply to `A Second Opinion on “Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Some Thoughts on Why and How,” by Thomas H. Jordan and Lucile M. Jones,' by Stuart Crampin
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DOI：
10.1785/gssrl.82.2.231
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发表时间：
2011-03
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
T. Jordan;L. Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Jordan;L. Jones
在民间传说中，“银弹”是对付狼人和女巫的有效武器。在地震预测中，银弹是一种诊断前兆——在地震发生前观察到的信号，可以很有可能表明即将发生的事件的地点、时间和震级（Jordan 2006）。在他的评论中，Crampin（2010）声称剪切波分裂（SWS）观测提供了一个银弹。他断言，地震学因此能够提高地震预报的低概率环境，我们在最近的评论文章（Jordan and Jones 2010）中分配了它。我们认为他的论点不能令人信服。他的概念基础是横波各向异性的变化对构造应力的变化很敏感，这是一个值得尊敬的假设。但他在这个概念上加了一大堆更可疑的假设，以某种方式得出SWS观测可以产生大地震的诊断前兆的结论。这不是对他几十年来所倡导的预测方法（例如Crampin et al. 1984）进行批判性分析的合适论坛。只要注意到克拉姆平的……
In folklore, a “silver bullet” is an effective weapon against were-wolves and witches. In earthquake prediction, a silver bullet is a diagnostic precursor —a signal observed before an earthquake that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of the impending event (Jordan 2006). In his comment, Crampin (2010) claims that shear-wave splitting (SWS) observations provide a silver bullet. He asserts that seismology is thus capable of raising earthquake forecasting out of the low-probability environment to which we assigned it in our recent opinion piece (Jordan and Jones 2010). We find his arguments unconvincing. His conceptual basis is the notion that changes in shear-wave anisotropy are sensitive to changes in tectonic stress—a respectable hypothesis. But he burdens this concept with a thick pile of more dubious assumptions to somehow conclude that SWS observations can yield diagnostic precursors of large earthquakes. This is not the appropriate forum for a critical analysis of the prediction methodology he has advocated for several decades ( e.g. , Crampin et al. 1984). Suffice it to note that Crampin's …