Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data.
Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data.
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DOI：
10.1186/1478-7954-2-6
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发表时间：
2004-07-27
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Fay, Michael P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fay, Michael P
Fay、Pfeiffer、Cronin、Le和Feuer（Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837-1848）开发了一个公式，用于计算假设队列首次发生疾病的年龄条件概率（ACPVD）。Fay et al（2003）公式的新奇在于，人们不需要知道每存活人年和无病人年的首次发病率，而只需输入每存活人年的首次发病率。同样，该公式使用的是每人-年的疾病死亡率和其他原因死亡率。估计人均年死亡率比估计无病人均年死亡率要容易得多。Fay等人（2003年）对所有三个速率函数使用了简单的分段常数模型，这些模型在每个年龄组内都具有恒定的速率。在本文中，我们详细介绍了一种方法，估计率函数没有跳跃在开始的年龄组，并不需要在年龄组内是常数。我们称这种方法为中年组连接点（MAJ）模型的利率。MAJ模型的缺点是必须使用数值积分来估计所得到的ACPVD。为了提高计算速度，我们提供了一个分段近似的MAJ模型，我们称之为分段中年组连接点（PMAJ）模型。Fay et al（2003）中描述的ACPD vD公式中输入速率的PMAJ模型是美国国家癌症研究所免费提供的DevCan软件中使用的当前方法。
Fay, Pfeiffer, Cronin, Le, and Feuer (Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837-1848) developed a formula to calculate the age-conditional probability of developing a disease for the first time (ACPDvD) for a hypothetical cohort. The novelty of the formula of Fay et al (2003) is that one need not know the rates of first incidence of disease per person-years alive and disease-free, but may input the rates of first incidence per person-years alive only. Similarly the formula uses rates of death from disease and death from other causes per person-years alive. The rates per person-years alive are much easier to estimate than per person-years alive and disease-free. Fay et al (2003) used simple piecewise constant models for all three rate functions which have constant rates within each age group. In this paper, we detail a method for estimating rate functions which does not have jumps at the beginning of age groupings, and need not be constant within age groupings. We call this method the mid-age group joinpoint (MAJ) model for the rates. The drawback of the MAJ model is that numerical integration must be used to estimate the resulting ACPDvD. To increase computational speed, we offer a piecewise approximation to the MAJ model, which we call the piecewise mid-age group joinpoint (PMAJ) model. The PMAJ model for the rates input into the formula for ACPDvD described in Fay et al (2003) is the current method used in the freely available DevCan software made available by the National Cancer Institute.