THE EVOLUTION OF FERTILITY EXPECTATIONS OVER THE LIFE COURSE
THE EVOLUTION OF FERTILITY EXPECTATIONS OVER THE LIFE COURSE
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DOI：
10.1353/dem.0.0073
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Hayford, Sarah R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hayford, Sarah R.
在低生育率的情况下，人们有多少孩子在很大程度上取决于他们想要多少孩子。然而，影响人们想要多少孩子的社会、制度和个人因素并没有得到很好的理解。特别是，几乎没有证据表明生育预期在一生中会发生怎样的变化。这篇文章对妇女在整个生育期的预期生育率的变化进行了实证描述。利用1979年全国青年纵向调查的数据，基于群体的轨迹分析阐明了生育意向演变中的常见模式，并确定了与这些模式相关的个人特征。与家庭形成有关的因素，如婚姻和妇女是否在很小的时候就有孩子，被发现是预期家庭规模变化模式中最一致的相关性。
In low-fertility contexts, how many children people have is largely a product of how many children they want. However, the social, institutional, and individual factors that influence how many children people want are not well understood. In particular, there is scant evidence about how fertility expectations change over the life course. This article provides an empirical description of changes in women's expected fertility over the entire span of childbearing years. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 cohort, group-based trajectory analysis illuminates common patterns in the evolution of fertility intentions and identifies individual characteristics associated with these patterns. Factors related to family formation, such as marriage and whether a woman has a child at an early age, are found to be the most consistent correlates of patterns of change in expected family size.