Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty
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巨大不确定性下的决策
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sven Ove Hansson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sven Ove Hansson
这篇文章是一个尝试，在更大的不确定性比传统的，数学为导向的决策理论可以科普的决策作出系统的帐户。区分了大不确定性的四个组成部分：（1）期权的同一性没有很好地确定（划界的不确定性）;（2）至少某些选择的后果是未知的（后果的不确定性）;（3）不清楚从其他人（如专家）那里获得的信息是否可以依赖（信赖的不确定性）;（4）与决定有关的价值没有以足够的精确度确定（价值的不确定性）。针对每个组成部分提出了一些可能的策略类型。与环境问题有关的决定被用来说明这些建议。
This article is an attempt at a systematic account of decision making under greater uncertainty than what traditional, mathematically oriented decision theory can cope with. Four components of great uncertainty are distinguished: (1) the identity of the options is not well determined (uncertainty of demarcation) ; (2) the consequences of at least some option are unknown (uncertainty of consequences); (3) it is not clear whether information obtained from others, such as experts, can be relied on (uncertainty of reliance); and (4) the values relevant for the decision are not determined with sufficient precision (uncertainty of values). Some possible strategy types are proposed for each of these components. Decisions related to environmental issues are used to illustrate the proposals.