Effects of Temperature on Emergence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus in California
Effects of Temperature on Emergence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus in California
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0342
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Reisen, William K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hartley, David M.;Barker, Christopher M.;Reisen, William K.
从2003年西尼罗河病毒传入到2009年建立，温度在整个加州西尼罗河病毒传播的时空动态中发挥了关键作用。我们比较了两种新的传播风险的机制措施，温度依赖性的病毒外源性潜伏期的蚊子生殖营养期（BT）的比例，和基本的生殖比（R-0）的基础上的数学模型，分析时空模式的病毒扩增的感受性。以20公里的比例尺绘制了BT和R-0的地图，并将其与整个加州的哨兵鸡群中每隔半个月的血清转化进行了比较。总体而言，BT和R-0的估计值与通过哨兵鸡血清转化频率测量的传播强度一致。诸如此类的机制性措施对于了解温度如何影响西尼罗河病毒传播的时空动态以及划定风险估计值非常重要，这些风险估计值有助于为病媒控制机构的干预决策提供信息，并传达爆发的可能性。
Temperature has played a critical role in the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission throughout California from its introduction in 2003 through establishment by 2009. We compared two novel mechanistic measures of transmission risk, the temperature-dependent ratio of virus extrinsic incubation period to the mosquito gonotrophic period (BT), and the fundamental reproductive ratio (R-0) based on a mathematical model, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of receptivity to viral amplification. Maps of BT and R-0 were created at 20-km scale and compared throughout California to seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks at half-month intervals. Overall, estimates of BT and R-0 agreed with intensity of transmission measured by the frequency of sentinel chicken seroconversions. Mechanistic measures such as these are important for understanding how temperature affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission and for delineating risk estimates useful to inform vector control agency intervention decisions and communicate outbreak potential.