Predicting twenty-first century recession of architectural limestone in European cities
Predicting twenty-first century recession of architectural limestone in European cities
复制标题
预测欧洲城市建筑石灰石的二十一世纪衰退
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Sabbioni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. M. Grossi;A. Bonazza;P. Brimblecombe;I. Harris;C. Sabbioni
21世纪的城市将使建筑物暴露在与以往时期完全不同的环境中。相比之下，最近城市中二氧化硫的减少，以及降低燃烧产生的污染物排放的持续压力，造成了气候引起的恶化的可能性，这一点更为重要。考虑到气候可能在未来一百年内发生变化，对奥维耶多（西班牙）、巴黎和布拉格在1981-2099年期间的钙质石衰退率进行了预测。这可以为未来威胁平衡的可能变化提供指导。使用Lipfert、ICP和multi - evaluate函数从气候和空气质量的估计中计算衰退。在污染水平持续下降或稳定的情况下，尽管气候可能发生变化，但已经达到低值的衰退率很可能在下个世纪基本保持不变。虽然所采用的职能在数量意义上不一致，但有证据表明，它们在20世纪最后几十年是相当一致的。在一个更清洁的未来，他们不同的基本假设导致更差的共识。
Cities of the twenty-first century will expose buildings to environments that are quite different from those experienced over preceding periods. The recent reduction in sulfur dioxide in cities and continued pressure to lower the emissions of combustion generated pollutants creates a potential for climate induced deterioration, by contrast, to be more important. Given that climate will likely change over the next hundred years, recession rates of calcareous stones have been predicted for Oviedo (Spain), Paris and Prague over the period 1981–2099. This can give guidance as to the likely change in balance of future threat. The Lipfert, ICP, and MULTI-ASSESS functions were used to calculate recession from estimates of climate and air quality. It is likely that under a continued decline or stable levels of pollution, recession rates having reached low values will remain largely unchanged over the coming century, despite likely changes in climate. Although the functions adopted disagree in a quantitative sense, there is evidence that they were reasonably concordant in the last decades of the twentieth century. In a cleaner future their different underlying assumptions lead to poorer agreement.