Toward Reducing Uncertainties in Arctic Climate Simulations
Toward Reducing Uncertainties in Arctic Climate Simulations
复制标题
减少北极气候模拟的不确定性
DOI：
10.1029/2008eo160002
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Kauker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Proshutinsky;K. Dethloff;R. Doescher;J. Gascard;F. Kauker
北极气候的迅速变化（2007年海冰极端减少和最近前所未有的变暖）和国际极地年（IPY; 2007-2008年）期间加强观测活动的巧合，使人们有希望详细记录这些变化。然而，为了解释北极的变化并预测其未来动态，需要北极气候系统模型来重现过去和现在的状态并预测未来的变化。现有模型的结果并不总是令人满意的[例如，Stroeve等人，2007]，因为模式强迫、物理过程的参数化和内部模式参数存在显著的不确定性。
The coincidence of rapid change in Arctic climate (the extreme 2007 decline in sea ice and recent unprecedented warming) and enhanced observational activities during the International Polar Year (IPY; 2007–2008) offers hope that these changes will be documented in great detail. However, in order to explain changes in the Arctic and predict its future dynamics, models of the Arctic climatic system are needed to reproduce past and present states and to predict future transformations. Results from existing models are not always satisfactory [e.g., Stroeve et al., 2007] because there are significant uncertainties in model forcing, parameterization of physical processes, and internal model parameters.