Firm-Driven Management of Longevity Risk: Analysis of Lump-Sum Forward Payments in the Japanese Nursing Home Market
Firm-Driven Management of Longevity Risk: Analysis of Lump-Sum Forward Payments in the Japanese Nursing Home Market
复制标题
公司驱动的长寿风险管理：日本养老院市场一次性远期付款分析
DOI：
10.1111/jems.12183
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Shinya Sugawara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Toshiaki Iizuka;Haruko Noguchi;Shinya Sugawara;Shinya Sugawara
本研究分析了日本私人养老院市场长寿风险管理的独特经济环境。这种情况采取的形式是居民一次性预付终身租金，这使得大多数长寿风险由房屋覆盖。为了分析这一情况，本文构建了一个关于该市场的产业组织结构计量模型。对于长寿风险的潜在结构，我假设个人消费者和养老院都利用主观评估。我的实证分析发现，超额支付只能通过在养老院不切实际的长时间停留来补偿。这一发现意味着存在经济行为人对寿命的夸大评估。因此，适当的政府干预，以帮助对冲长寿风险可能会改善社会福利。
This study analyzes a unique economic circumstance of longevity risk management in the Japanese private nursing home market. This circumstance takes the form of a lump‐sum forward payment of lifetime rent by residents, which leaves most longevity risk to be covered by homes. To analyze this circumstance, I construct a structural econometric model of industrial organization for this market. For the underlying structure of longevity risk, I assume that both individual consumers and nursing homes utilize the subjective evaluation. My empirical analysis detects excess payments that can be compensated for only by an unrealistically long stay in nursing homes. This finding implies the existence of the exaggerated evaluation of longevity by economic agents. Thus, appropriate government intervention to help hedge longevity risk might improve social welfare.