Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?
Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0491-8
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
S. Poudel;Koji Kotani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Poudel;Koji Kotani
气候模式的快速变化可能是由全球变暖引起的，这被认为是对农业的最大威胁。然而，关于气候变化如何具体影响农业生产，特别是在尼泊尔，对于季节和不同海拔地区的影响，人们知之甚少。为了研究这一问题，我们试图利用尼泊尔中部地区的水稻、小麦和气候变量的数据，从经验上确定气候变化对农业产量及其变异性的影响。主要关注的是影响是否会因季节、海拔和作物类型而异。为此，我们采用了一种随机生产函数方法，通过控制一组新的季节性气候和地理变量。结果表明，气温和降水方差的增大总体上对作物产量有不利影响。另一方面，温度和降雨量平均水平的变化会引起不同的影响，这种影响可以被认为是有益的，也可以是有害的，或者可以忽略不计，具体取决于海拔和作物种类。这些结果意味着，尼泊尔农业必须考虑到生长季节、海拔和作物类型，量身定做适应战略。
A rapid change in climate patterns potentially driven by global warming is considered to be greatest threats to agriculture. However, little is known about how the change in climate concretely affects agricultural production especially in Nepal with respect to seasons and regions of different altitudes. To examine this issue, we seek to empirically identify the impact of climatic variation on agricultural yield and its variability by utilizing the data of rice, wheat and climate variables in the central region of Nepal. The main focus is on whether the impacts vary across seasons, altitudes and the types of crops. For this purpose, we employ a stochastic production function approach by controlling a novel set of season-wise climatic and geographical variables. The result shows that an increase in the variance of both temperature and rainfall has adverse effects on crop productions in general. On the other hand, a change in the mean levels of the temperature and rainfall induces heterogeneous impacts, which can be considered beneficial, harmful or negligible, depending on the altitudes and the kinds of crops. These results imply that adaptation strategies must be tailor-made in Nepalese agriculture, considering growing seasons, altitudes and the types of crops.