Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate-Change Adaptation: A Proposed Framework for Planning in the Age of Uncertainty
Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate-Change Adaptation: A Proposed Framework for Planning in the Age of Uncertainty
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公共风险和适应气候变化的挑战：不确定时代规划的拟议框架
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Lyles
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Berke;W. Lyles
以往的研究和实践表明，缺乏关注公共风险的公众群体，以及在应对公共风险方面长期不足的传统规划模式，是适应气候变化的主要挑战。与气候变化相关的公共风险的核心特征是二氧化碳排放影响的不确定性、广泛的分布以及几十年后的规划视野。在这篇文章中，我们介绍了在研究和规划实践中出现的将协作治理与预期治理联系起来的新模型。将这些模型结合起来提供了一种新的规划方法，同时为当前决策制定战略指导，以实现未来的复原力目标，并建立了利益相关者的支持性网络。我们就如何过渡到以不确定性、灵活的政策、监测、创新和反馈为前提的计划提出了建议。然后，我们建议进行未来所需的研究，以检验我们提出的规划框架的有效性。
Previous research and practice suggest that the lack of a public constituency concerned about public risks and the traditional planning paradigm that is chronically deficient in addressing public risks are major challenges to adaptation to climate change. The core features of public risks associated with climate change are uncertainty about the effects of carbon dioxide emissions, broad distribution, and planning horizons that are decades away. In this article, we present new models that are emerging in research and planning practice that link collaborative governance with anticipatory governance. Coupling the models offers a new approach to planning that simultaneously formulates strategic guidance for current decisions to achieve future resiliency goals, and it builds supportive networks of stakeholders. We offer recommendations on how to make the transition to plans that are premised on uncertainty, flexible polices, monitoring, innovation, and feedback. We then recommend future research needed to examine the effectiveness of the planning framework we propose.