Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100
Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100
复制标题
2010年至2100年共享社会经济路径下中国省级和网格化人口预测
DOI：
10.1038/s41597-020-0421-y
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-09
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Wang, Kaicun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Yidan;Guo, Fang;Wang, Kaicun
为了满足对中国未来人口的次国家和空间明确数据的日益增长的需求，本研究估计了2010年至2100年中国省级人口的年龄（0-100+），性别，（男性和女性）和教育水平（文盲，小学，初中，高中，大学，学士，和硕士及以上）在不同的共享社会经济途径（SSP）。省级预测考虑了中国近年来实施的促进生育政策和特大城市人口上限限制，以减少当前研究中的系统性偏差。预测的省级人口被分配到空间明确的人口网格，每年在30弧秒分辨率的基础上代表性浓度路径（RCP）的城市网格和历史人口网格。利用《中国省级统计年鉴》2017年人口数据对省级预测数据进行了验证，并对2015年人口网格的准确性进行了评估。这些数据有许多潜在的用途，可以作为气候政策研究的投入，需要中国精确的行政或空间人口数据。
In response to a growing demand for subnational and spatially explicit data on China's future population, this study estimates China's provincial population from 2010 to 2100 by age (0-100+), sex (male and female) and educational levels (illiterate, primary school, junior-high school, senior-high school, college, bachelor's, and master's and above) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The provincial projection takes into account fertility promoting policies and population ceiling restrictions of megacities that have been implemented in China in recent years to reduce systematic biases in current studies. The predicted provincial population is allocated to spatially explicit population grids for each year at 30 arc-seconds resolution based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) urban grids and historical population grids. The provincial projection data were validated using population data in 2017 from China's Provincial Statistical Yearbook, and the accuracy of the population grids in 2015 was evaluated. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs in climate policy research with requirements for precise administrative or spatial population data in China.