Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study
Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-10-1751-2013
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发表时间：
2012-08
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
D. Cameron;M. Oijen;C. Werner;K. Butterbach‐Bahl;E. Haas;G. Heuvelink;R. Grote;R. Kiese;M. Kuhnert;J. Kros;A. Leip;G. Reinds;H. Reuter;M. Schelhaas;W. Vries;J. Yeluripati
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文献类型：
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作者：
D. Cameron;M. Oijen;C. Werner;K. Butterbach‐Bahl;E. Haas;G. Heuvelink;R. Grote;R. Kiese;M. Kuhnert;J. Kros;A. Leip;G. Reinds;H. Reuter;M. Schelhaas;W. Vries;J. Yeluripati
森林是欧洲温室气体平衡的重要组成部分。关于气候和氮沉降的预测变化将如何扰乱欧洲森林的碳和氮循环，从而改变森林生长、碳固存和氧化亚氮排放，存在相当大的不确定性。本研究旨在量化 2010 年至 2030 年期间欧洲森林的碳氮平衡，包括温室气体交换，特别强调变化的空间变异性。该分析针对两种树种进行：欧洲山毛榉和欧洲赤松。为此，使用了四种不同的动态模型：BASFOR、DailyDayCent、INTEGRATOR 和 Landscape-DNDC。这些模型涵盖从半经验到复杂机械的一系列模型。通过比较这些模型，可以评估模型预测在多大程度上取决于模型输入和结构的差异。我们发现欧洲平均碳汇为 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1（松树）和 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1（山毛榉），N2O 源为 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1（松树）和 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 （山毛榉）。碳汇的欧洲平均温室气体潜力是 N2O 源的 18（松树）和 8（山毛榉）倍。树木中的碳固存量大于土壤中的碳固存量。中欧的碳固存和森林生长量最大，瑞典北部和芬兰、波兰北部和西班牙南部的最低。没有发现任何单一驱动因素能够主导整个欧洲的变革。研究发现，森林对环境驱动因素的变化最为敏感，这些驱动因素限制了生长，变化特别大，或者变化协同作用。对于哪些环境变化对森林生长的地理变化最为显着，以及哪些树种的碳固存率最高，这些模型存在分歧。研究发现松树和山毛榉林对环境变化具有不同的敏感性，特别是对氮和降水变化的响应，山毛榉林更容易受到干旱的影响。 N2O 排放的地理位置存在相当大的不确定性。其中两个模型 BASFOR 和 LandscapeDNDC 在中欧排放量最大，那里的氮沉降和土壤氮含量最高，而另外两个模型则确定了 N2O 排放量较大的不同区域。研究发现，山毛榉林的 N2O 排放量高于松林，并且对森林生长特别敏感。
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest, whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.