Determining Robust Impacts of Land-Use-Induced Land Cover Changes on Surface Climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the First Set of LUCID Experiments
Determining Robust Impacts of Land-Use-Induced Land Cover Changes on Surface Climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the First Set of LUCID Experiments
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00338.1
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Voldoire, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie;Boisier, Juan-Pablo;Voldoire, A.
土地利用和气候，确定强有力的影响项目（LUCID）是为了解决历史上土地利用-土地覆被变化的地球物理影响的强有力性。LUCID使用了七个具有共同实验设计的大气-陆地模型，以探索LULCC在气候模型中具有鲁棒性和一致性的影响。土地利用、土地利用的变化和气候变化的生态物理影响也与温室气体升高的影响以及由此造成的海表温度和海冰范围（CO2 SST）变化进行了比较。这项研究集中分析欧亚大陆和北美，表明一些变量LULCC有类似的规模，但相反的迹象，增加温室气体和温暖的海洋的影响。然而，各个模型对LULCC的响应之间的变异性大于从CO2 SST的增加中发现的变异性。研究结果表明，尽管模型对LULCC的响应之间的离散度很大，但所有模型都具有一些强大的共同特征：用于湍流通量的可用能量在模型之间是一致的，并且响应LULCC的变化几乎线性地依赖于树木的数量。然而，不太令人鼓舞的是，有没有一致性的各种模式之间关于土地利用、土地利用的变化如何影响分配的可用能量之间的潜热和感热通量在特定的时间。因此，结果突出了迫切需要更彻底地评估陆面模型，特别是它们如何响应扰动，以及它们如何模拟观测到的平均状态。
The project Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) was conceived to address the robustness of biogeophysical impacts of historical land use-land cover change (LULCC). LUCID used seven atmosphere-land models with a common experimental design to explore those impacts of LULCC that are robust and consistent across the climate models. The biogeophysical impacts of LULCC were also compared to the impact of elevated greenhouse gases and resulting changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent (CO2SST). Focusing the analysis on Eurasia and North America, this study shows that for a number of variables LULCC has an impact of similar magnitude but of an opposite sign, to increased greenhouse gases and warmer oceans. However, the variability among the individual models' response to LULCC is larger than that found from the increase in CO2SST. The results of the study show that although the dispersion among the models' response to LULCC is large, there are a number of robust common features shared by all models: the amount of available energy used for turbulent fluxes is consistent between the models and the changes in response to LULCC depend almost linearly on the amount of trees removed. However, less encouraging is the conclusion that there is no consistency among the various models regarding how LULCC affects the partitioning of available energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes at a specific time. The results therefore highlight the urgent need to evaluate land surface models more thoroughly, particularly how they respond to a perturbation in addition to how they simulate an observed average state.