Dynamic and synergistic influences of air temperature and rainfall on general flowering in a Bornean lowland tropical forest
Dynamic and synergistic influences of air temperature and rainfall on general flowering in a Bornean lowland tropical forest
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气温和降雨量对婆罗洲低地热带森林一般开花的动态和协同影响
DOI：
10.1111/1440-1703.12057
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ushio;M.;Osada;Y.;Kumagai;T. O.;Kume;T.;Pungga;R. A. S.;Nakashizuka;T.;Itioka;T.;Sakai;S.
在东南亚热带森林中发生的超年度同步开花事件，被称为一般开花（GF），是“壮观而神秘”的森林事件。最近，结合新的分子技术和基于模型的理论方法的研究表明，低温和干旱协同驱动GF。尽管这些进展推进了我们对GF的理解，但仍然很难知道基于个体的分子测量和基于模型的数学表示是否合理地很好地捕捉了社区水平上复杂和动态的GF过程。在本研究中，我们从马来西亚婆罗洲的Lambir Hills国家公园收集了一组17年的全社区物候数据，并使用无模型方法进行分析，即经验动态建模（EDM），它不依赖于对潜在机制的特定假设，以克服和补充以前的局限性。我们发现，该地区的GF是协同驱动的，而不是独立的，由冷空气温度和干旱，这是与以前的研究一致。更重要的是，我们的无模型方法首次表明，累积气象变量对GF的影响随着时间的推移而变化。气象变量对GF的时变影响意味着GF和气象变量之间的关系可能受到其他因素的影响，如植物/土壤养分资源动态。我们的研究为壮观的热带森林事件GF的机制提供了新的见解，未来的研究将结合先进的数学/统计框架，长期和大空间尺度的生态系统监测和分子物候学数据，有望更好地理解和预测东南亚的GF事件。
Supra‐annually synchronized flowering events occurring in tropical forests in Southeast Asia, known as general flowering (GF), are “spectacular and mysterious” forest events. Recently, studies that combined novel molecular techniques and model‐based theoretical approaches suggested that cool temperature and drought synergistically drove GF. Although these advanced our understanding of GF, it is still difficult to know whether the individual‐based molecular measurements and model‐based mathematical representations reasonably well capture the complex and dynamic GF processes at the community level. In the present study, we collected a 17‐year set of community‐wide phenology data from Lambir Hills National Park in Borneo, Malaysia, and analyzed it using a model‐free approach, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), which does not rely on specific assumptions about the underlying mechanisms, to overcome and complement the previous limitations. We found that GF in the region is driven synergistically, not independently, by cool air temperature and drought, which is consistent with the previous studies. More importantly, our model‐free approach showed for the first time that effects of cumulative meteorological variables on GF changed over time. The time‐varying influences of meteorological variables on GF imply that the relationship between GF and meteorological variables might be influenced by other factors such as plant/soil nutrient resource dynamics. Our study provides a novel insight about the mechanism underlying the spectacular tropical forest event GF, and future studies integrating advanced mathematical/statistical frameworks, long‐term and large spatial scale ecosystem monitoring and molecular phenology data are promising for achieving better understanding and forecasting of GF events in Southeast Asia.