Does climate change influence the current and future projected distribution of an endangered species? The case of the southernmost bumblebee in the world
Does climate change influence the current and future projected distribution of an endangered species? The case of the southernmost bumblebee in the world
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DOI：
10.1007/s10841-022-00384-5
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发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
C. Morales;J. Montalvà;M. Arbetman;M. Aizen;A. C. Martins;D. P. Silva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Morales;J. Montalvà;M. Arbetman;M. Aizen;A. C. Martins;D. P. Silva
冷适应大黄蜂对气候变化（CC）很脆弱。南美洲大黄蜂（bombus dahlbomii）是世界上最南端的大黄蜂，自20世纪90年代以来急剧下降，可能特别容易受到当前和未来CC的影响。目的/方法我们提出了以下问题：(1)当前CC是否在该物种的观测下降中起作用；(2)预测CC将如何影响b的未来分布。dahlbomii。我们对b的发生情况进行了全面的记录。(2)在IPCC第五次报告预测的未来（2080-2100）RCP 8.5情景下预测的当前和未来气候适宜性。结果和讨论sdms在1990年前和1990年后没有显示物种气候适宜性的变化，表明在这个时间尺度上，CC对观测到的物种下降没有显著作用。然而，在70%和100%的共识模型下，预计到2080-2100年，~ 0.041º网格单元的范围将分别减少13%和14%。对昆虫保护的启示。dahlbomiii允许优先考虑保护工作。入侵大黄蜂造成的短期威胁值得紧急关注。为了更好地预测该物种的命运，需要了解这种威胁与CC之间的潜在协同作用。两国合作应确保阿根廷和智利气候适宜地区之间的互联互通。
IntroductionCold-adapted bumblebees are vulnerable to climate change (CC). South AmericanBombus dahlbomii, the southernmost bumblebee worldwide, has strongly declined since the 1990s and may be particularly susceptible to current and future CC.Aims/methodsWe asked (1) whether current CC had a role in the observed decline of this species and (2) how projected CC would affect the future distribution ofB. dahlbomii. We used a comprehensive record of occurrences forB. dahlbomiiand species distribution models (SDMs) to build maps of (1) predicted current climatic suitability using pre-1990s and post-1990s occurrences, and (2) projected current and future climatic suitability under future (2080–2100) RCP 8.5 scenarios predicted by the 5th IPCC Report.Results and discussionSDMs did not show changes in species climatic suitability pre-1990 vs. post-1990, suggesting no significant role of CC on the observed decline of the species at this time scale. However, a moderate range reduction of 13% and 14% of the ~ 0.041º grid cells was predicted by 2080–2100 under the 70% and 100% consensus models, respectively.Implications for insect conservationIdentifying the threats toB. dahlbomiiallows for prioritizing conservation efforts. Short-term threats imposed by invasive bumblebees deserve urgent attention. The potential synergies between this threat and CC need to be understood to better predict the fate of this species. Binational cooperation should guarantee connectivity between climatically suitable areas in Argentina and Chile.