THE STABILITY OF DISRUPTIVE CHILDHOOD BEHAVIORS
THE STABILITY OF DISRUPTIVE CHILDHOOD BEHAVIORS
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DOI：
10.1007/bf01447563
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发表时间：
1995-06-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
LYNSKEY, MT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
FERGUSSON, DM;HORWOOD, LJ;LYNSKEY, MT
对新西兰出生队列7 ~ 15岁儿童的行为稳定性和对立违抗行为进行了研究。这些数据用两种方法进行分析。在第一种方法中，使用经验过渡矩阵分析观察到的儿童行为倾向的状态到状态的变化。这些结果表明，被归类为病例的儿童表现出很高的症状缓解率，大约50%的病例在2年后被归类为非病例。在第二种方法中，使用考虑了儿童分类测量误差的潜在马尔可夫模型对数据进行分析。该分析表明，儿童问题行为存在很强的连续性，只有14%的儿童在2年内表现出行为问题的缓解。由经验过渡矩阵和潜在分析得出的估计值的差异可以用这样一个事实来解释，即由于测量误差，病例儿童被错误分类的可能性相对较高。
The stability of child conduct and oppositional defiant behaviors during the period from 7 to 15 years was studied in a birth cohort of New Zealand children. These data were analyzed using two methods. In the first method the observed state to state changes in childhood behavioral tendencies were analyzed using empirical transition matrices. These results suggested that children classified as cases showed high rates of symptom remission, with approximately 50% of cases being classified as noncases 2 years later. In the second approach the data were analyzed using a latent Markov model which took account of errors of measurement in the classification of children. This analysis suggested the presence of strong continuities in childhood problem behaviors, with only 14% of children showing remission of behavioral problems within a 2-year period. The differences in the estimates yielded by the empirical transition matrices and the latent analyses were explained by the fact that there were relatively high probabilities that children who were cases were misclassified as a result of measurement errors.