Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios
Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios
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DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fsv217
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Barange, Manuel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fernandes, Jose A.;Kay, Susan;Barange, Manuel
渔业部门对孟加拉国的经济和福祉至关重要，占国内生产总值的4.4%以及农业部门产量的22.8%，并且提供了约60%的全国动物蛋白摄入量。鱼类对生活在沿海的1600万孟加拉国人至关重要，自20世纪80年代以来，这一数字已经翻倍。在此，我们开发并应用工具，根据全球气候模型的降尺度处理，利用相关的河流流量和营养物负荷估算，预测物理和生化海洋特性的高分辨率变化，并最终在不同的捕捞死亡率目标下预测鱼类产量和捕捞潜力，从而预测在气候和渔业管理情景下孟加拉国海洋渔业的长期生产能力。我们特别关注鲥鱼（Tenualosa ilisha），它约占总捕捞量的11%，以及龙头鱼（Harpadon nehereus），一种低价鱼，是孟加拉国第二大捕捞量的鱼类，并且被低收入群体大量消费。结论是，在温室气体排放情景A1B下，气候变化的影响可能会使孟加拉国专属经济区内的潜在鱼类产量减少……
The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by