Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?
Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?
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“损失和损坏”能承担重担吗？
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2017.0070
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Robert R. M. Verchick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robert R. M. Verchick
即使假设在减少碳排放和适应气候变化方面有一个英雄般的冲刺，世界上的一些地区也将受到气候影响的沉重打击。因此，现在全球一致认为需要一个补充计划来处理无法避免的伤害-缔约方称之为“损失和损害”。一个损失和损害计划要想发挥作用，它必须能够承受负荷，负荷是道德和政治共识所要求的任何最低标准。但如果剩余风险攀升得太高，它甚至连最基本的预期都达不到。《巴黎协定》呼吁将全球平均气温的上升幅度控制在“远低于工业化前水平2°C”的范围内，同时努力将上升幅度限制在1.5°C以内。这半个度有多大的差别？从剩余风险的角度来看，相当多。根据欧洲地球科学联盟2016年发表的一项研究，从1.5°C跳到2°C可能会产生巨大的影响，特别是在热带地区。这一区别可能标志着一个计划在政治和道德上是站得住脚的，而另一个计划则站不住脚。至少，这种差异足以为任何未来计划的设计和期望提供信息。本文是《巴黎协定：了解世界变暖比工业化前水平高1.5°C的物理和社会挑战》主题的一部分。
Even assuming a heroic rush towards carbon reduction and adaptation, some regions of the world will be hammered hard by climate impacts. Thus, a global consensus now sees the need for a supplemental plan to deal with the kind of harms that cannot be avoided—what Parties call ‘loss and damage’. For a loss-and-damage plan to work, it must be capable of carrying the load, the load being whatever minimal standards that morality and political consensus require. But if residual risk climbs too high, it will fall short of even the most basic expectations. The Paris Agreement calls for holding the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, while working to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much difference is in that half-degree? From the point of view of residual risk, quite a lot. According to a 2016 study published by the European Geosciences Union, a jump from 1.5°C to 2°C could produce outsize impacts, particularly in tropical latitudes. That difference could mark the line between a plan that is politically and morally defensible and one that is not. At the very least, the difference is enough to inform the design and expectations of any future plan. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.
《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判中气候变化的损失和损害
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Vanhala L
通讯作者：
Vanhala L