Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda
Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2015.05.004
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Xie, Zongqiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shen, Guozhen;Pimm, Stuart L.;Xie, Zongqiang
全球保护生物多样性的保护区总数正在稳步增加，而大量研究表明它们广泛有效。也就是说，考虑到全球气候当前和预期的变化，当前的保护策略将如何发挥作用？大熊猫是保护动物的象征，人们为保护其剩余的栖息地付出了巨大的努力。它提供了一个独特的案例研究来解决这个问题。关于气候变暖预计栖息地丧失的研究有很多，但很少考虑未来栖息地的地理布局、当前保护区和物种的扩散能力。最令人担忧的是，我们预计气候变化后栖息地的破碎化程度会更大。在这里，我们将大熊猫的长期数据与气候变化情景结合起来，预测中国四川岷山和甘肃的未来栖息地丧失和分布。我们采用集合种群能力作为物种对栖息地破碎化反应的机械衡量标准。结果显示，气候变化将导致大熊猫栖息地减少16.3+/-1.4(%)。令人担忧的是，随着破碎程度增加近四倍，剩余栖息地碎片的 11.4% 将小于灭绝阈值区域。根据大熊猫栖息地的破碎化预测，保护区网络内的效率比保护区外的效率低 9%。储备网络未来的有效性将下降 35%。这些结果对保护区在保护物种持久性方面的长期有效性提出了挑战。它们表明需要整合自然过程和动态威胁，而不是简单地依赖单个静态自然保护区。 (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
The global total of protected areas to conserve biodiversity is increasing steadily, while numerous studies show that they are broadly effective. That said, how will current conservation strategies work, given the current and expected changes to the global climate? The giant panda is a conservation icon and exceptional efforts protect its remaining habitats. It provides a unique case study to address this question. There are many studies on the projected loss of habitats as climate warms, but few consider the geographical arrangement of future habitats, current protected area, and species' dispersal abilities. Most alarmingly, we expect much greater habitat fragmentation after climate change. Here, we combine long-term data on giant pandas with climate-change scenarios to predict future habitat loss and distribution in the Min Shan of Sichuan and Gansu, China. We employ metapopulation capacity as a mechanistic measure of a species' response to habitat fragmentation. The results show that climate changes will lead to 16.3 +/- 1.4 (%) losses of giant panda habitats. Alarmingly, 11.4% of the remaining habitat fragments would be smaller than the extinction threshold area as the extent of fragmentation increases nearly fourfold. The projected fragmentation of giant panda habitats predicts 9% lower effectiveness inside the protected area network compared with that outside of reserves. A 35% reduction will occur in future effectiveness of reserve networks. The results challenge the long-term effectiveness of protected areas in protecting the species' persistence. They indicate a need for integrating both natural processes and dynamic threats over a simple reliance on individual static natural reserves. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.