Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?
Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2001.0894
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发表时间：
2001-07-29
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Cox, JS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kovats, RS;Campbell-Lendrum, DH;Cox, JS
世界气候现在似乎正在以前所未有的速度变化。昆虫和鸟类物种分布和行为的变化表明，生物系统已经对这种变化作出反应。众所周知，气候是病媒和病原体时空分布的一个重要决定因素。从理论上讲，气候的变化预计会导致地理范围、季节性（年内变化）和发病率（有或没有地理或季节模式的变化）的变化。科学家们正在面临一项新的任务，即发现这些变化，然后将其归因于气候变化。我们讨论了所需的证据属性的变化，疾病和病媒的早期影响，人为气候变化。迄今为止的文献表明，没有有力的证据表明气候变化对病媒传播疾病（即疟疾、登革热、利什曼病、蜱媒疾病）的影响。必须采取新的监测办法，例如沿沿着断面经常和长期取样，以监测特定病媒物种的整个纬度和海拔范围，以便提供令人信服的气候变化直接证据。方面的影响.有必要重新评估证据的适当程度，包括处理在检测全球变化对健康的影响方面所存在的不确定性。
The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change. effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.