A Simulator of Human Emergency Mobility Following Disasters: Knowledge Transfer from Big Disaster Data
A Simulator of Human Emergency Mobility Following Disasters: Knowledge Transfer from Big Disaster Data
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DOI：
10.1609/aaai.v29i1.9237
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发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xuan Song;Quanshi Zhang;Y. Sekimoto;R. Shibasaki;Nicholas Jing Yuan;Xing Xie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xuan Song;Quanshi Zhang;Y. Sekimoto;R. Shibasaki;Nicholas Jing Yuan;Xing Xie
过去几十年来，自然灾害的频率和强度显著增加，预计这一趋势将继续下去。面对这些可能发生的突发性灾害，了解和模拟灾后人员的紧急流动性将成为规划有效的人道主义救援、灾害管理和长期社会重建的关键问题。然而，由于灾害的独特性和可靠的和大规模的人类移动数据的不可用性，这样的研究是非常困难的。因此，本文收集了大量的异构数据（如三年内160万用户的GPS记录、四年内17520次日本地震数据、新闻报道数据、交通网络数据等）。捕捉和分析人类在不同灾害后的紧急流动性。通过挖掘这些大数据，我们的目标是了解灾害发生后人类流动的基本规律，并开发一个通用的人类应急流动模型，以生成和模拟大量的人类应急流动。实验结果和验证表明，我们的模拟模型的效率，并表明，灾害后的人员流动可能是显着更可预测的，可以更容易地模拟比以前认为的。
The frequency and intensity of natural disasters has significantly increased over the past decades and this trend is predicted to continue. Facing these possible and unexpected disasters, understanding and simulating of human emergency mobility following disasters will becomethe critical issue for planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societal reconstruction. However, due to the uniquenessof various disasters and the unavailability of reliable and large scale human mobility data, such kind of research is very difficult to be performed. Hence, in this paper,we collect big and heterogeneous data (e.g. 1.6 million users' GPS records in three years, 17520 times of Japan earthquake data in four years, news reporting data, transportation network data and etc.) to capture and analyze human emergency mobility following different disasters. By mining these big data, we aim to understand what basic laws govern human mobility following disasters, and develop a general model of human emergency mobility for generating and simulating large amount of human emergency movements. The experimental results and validations demonstrate the efficiency of our simulation model, and suggest that human mobility following disasters may be significantly morepredictable and can be easier simulated than previously thought.