To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492
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发表时间：
2019-10
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
R. Kipling;C. Topp;A. Bannink;D. Bartley;I. Blanco-Penedo;R. Cortignani;A. Prado;G. Dono;P. Faverdin;Anne-Isabelle Graux;N. Hutchings;L. Lauwers;S. Ö. Gülzari;P. Reidsma;S. Rolinski;M. Ruíz-Ramos;D. Sandars;R. Sándor;M. Schönhart;G. Seddaiu;J. V. Middelkoop;S. Shrestha;I. Weindl;V. Eory
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文献类型：
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作者：
R. Kipling;C. Topp;A. Bannink;D. Bartley;I. Blanco-Penedo;R. Cortignani;A. Prado;G. Dono;P. Faverdin;Anne-Isabelle Graux;N. Hutchings;L. Lauwers;S. Ö. Gülzari;P. Reidsma;S. Rolinski;M. Ruíz-Ramos;D. Sandars;R. Sándor;M. Schönhart;G. Seddaiu;J. V. Middelkoop;S. Shrestha;I. Weindl;V. Eory
建模是使农业适应气候变化的关键，有助于评估适应措施的影响和效力，以及设计最佳战略。虽然在模拟农业气候变化适应方面存在许多挑战，但尚不清楚这些挑战是否新颖，或者适应是否只是在旧的挑战上增加了新的动机。在这里，建模者的意见定性分析揭示了三个类别的挑战：内容，使用和容量。然后，将研究结果与农业建模和气候变化风险评估的审查进行三角分析，以突出适应建模方面的具体挑战。这些都是通过文献综述，重点关注CC的渐进性如何影响建模的作用和影响。所确定的具体挑战有：模拟适应的范围，关于未来适应的信息，合作应对新的挑战，在有阈值的渐进变化下的优化，以及考虑到未来结果对渐进变化下最初选择的敏感性的责任。
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.