Modeling the Response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstrom Glaciers, Greenland, to Ocean Forcing Over the Next Century
Modeling the Response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstrom Glaciers, Greenland, to Ocean Forcing Over the Next Century
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl075174
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发表时间：
2017-11-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wood, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Choi, Y.;Morlighem, M.;Wood, M.
最近的研究表明，自2010年以来，格陵兰岛东北部冰盖区域正在经历显著的加速和动态变薄，这些变化与区域大气和海洋变暖密切相关。在这里，我们模拟的响应Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden（79北）和Zachariae IsstrOm（ZI）的海洋强迫调查他们的演变在未来几十年。我们的模型表明，79 North将在下一个世纪缓慢退缩，而ZI将完全失去其漂浮的冰舌，并迅速退缩70年。70年后，ZI将稳定在目前位置上游30公里处的地形脊上。锋面融化速率需要在夏季达到6米/天，才能将冰川从这个山脊上移开。然后，ZI将继续快速而不可阻挡的撤退，到2100年将导致全球海平面上升超过16.2毫米。
Recent studies have shown that the Northeast Greenland Ice Sheet region has been undergoing significant acceleration and dynamic thinning since 2010, and these changes are closely related to regional atmospheric and oceanic warming. Here we model the response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79North) and Zachariae IsstrOm (ZI) to ocean forcing to investigate their evolution over the coming decades. Our model suggests that 79North will retreat slowly over the next century, whereas ZI will lose its floating ice tongue completely and retreat rapidly for 70 years. After 70 years, ZI will stabilize 30 km upstream of its current position on a topographic ridge. Frontal melt rates need to reach 6 m/d in the summer to dislodge the glacier from this ridge. ZI will then continue a fast and unstoppable retreat, contributing more than 16.2 mm to global sea level rise by 2100.