JOB DISPLACEMENT AND MORTALITY: AN ANALYSIS USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
JOB DISPLACEMENT AND MORTALITY: AN ANALYSIS USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
复制标题
DOI：
10.1162/qjec.2009.124.3.1265
复制
发表时间：
2009-08-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
von Wachter, Till
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sullivan, Daniel;von Wachter, Till
我们使用20世纪70年代和80年代宾夕法尼亚州工人季度就业和收入的行政数据，与1980-2006年社会保障管理局的死亡记录相匹配，以估计失业对死亡率的影响。我们发现，对于高资历的男性工人，在流离失所后一年的死亡率比预期高出50%-100%。随着时间的推移，对死亡风险的影响急剧下降，但即使在流离失所20年后，我们估计每年的死亡风险也会增加10%-15%。如果这种增长无限期地持续下去，那么对于一个40岁时失业的工人来说，他们的预期寿命将减少1.0-1.5年。我们表明，这些结果并不是由于选择性取代不太健康的工人或不稳定的行业或公司提供不太健康的工作环境。我们还表明，收入损失较大的工人往往会遭受更大的死亡率增加。当我们根据行业、公司或公司规模的工资溢价损失来考察预测的收益下降时，这种相关性仍然存在。
We use administrative data on the quarterly employment and earnings of Pennsylvanian workers in the 1970s and 1980s matched to Social Security Administration death records covering 1980-2006 to estimate the effects of job displacement on mortality. We find that for high-seniority male workers, mortality rates in the year after displacement are 50%-100% higher than would otherwise have been expected. The effect on mortality hazards declines sharply over time, but even twenty years after displacement, we estimate a 10%-15% increase in annual death hazards. If such increases were sustained indefinitely, they would imply a loss in life expectancy of 1.0-1.5 years for a worker displaced at age forty. We show that these results are not due to selective displacement of less healthy workers or to unstable industries or firms offering less healthy work environments. We also show that workers with larger losses in earnings tend to suffer greater increases in mortality. This correlation remains when we examine predicted earnings declines based on losses in industry, firm, or firm-size wage premiums.