Population and development in rural Egypt.
Population and development in rural Egypt.
复制标题
埃及农村的人口与发展。
DOI：
10.2307/2068695
复制
发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Kross
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kelley;A. M. Khalifa;M. El;J. Kross
为了提供关于经济、社会和人口变化之间关系的数量证据，并获得关于替代人口政策的有效性的资料，埃及进行了几项重要的数据收集工作。本研究分析了1979年农村生育率调查（RFS）的数据集之一。分析采用了一种折衷的研究策略，使用了几种不同的统计技术来评估从经济学、人口学和社会学学科得出的假设。这11章包括以下内容：埃及农村的人口变化和社会经济发展----调查结果和政策;埃及人口的特点和政策;人口问题的分析前景（伊斯特林综合家庭决策中儿童的其他观点，儿童的其他经济观点，人口分析中因果关系和统计推断的泥潭）;埃及农村社会概览;埃及农村完整家庭规模的决定因素;埃及生育率和死亡率的其他方面;计划生育前景和问题（现代避孕方法的使用、生育子女和避孕药具的使用以及理想的家庭规模）;教育对生育率的影响（妻子的教育程度和初婚年龄、曾出生的子女、怀孕损失和儿童死亡率、对生育率和家庭及避孕药具使用的态度）;人口与发展项目的目标、范围、组织和活动;埃及的人口研究（范围和限制因素、优先研究问题、数据要求、建模和统计分析）。主要的研究结果可以通过考虑埃及农村的4个广泛问题来总结：为什么家庭如此之大;社会经济发展如何影响人口增长;为什么避孕普及率如此之低;计划生育和社会经济发展相结合的方案可能产生什么影响。随着社会经济的发展，期望生育子女数（DNC）呈下降趋势。特别是，DNC随着男性和女性教育程度的增加而下降，随着初婚年龄的增加而下降，个人资产和电力的所有权不变，而真实的资产的所有权不变。相比之下，儿童死亡（C）在很大程度上与这些家庭属性无关。避孕方法的使用随着社会经济发展而增加，但这种发展的形式可能很重要。出生的孩子主要来自这三种影响的净影响。
In an effort to provide quantitative evidence of the relationships among economic social and demographic change and to obtain information on the effectiveness of alternative population policies several major data collection efforts have been carried out in Egypt. This study analyzes 1 of these data sets the 1979 Rural Fertility Survey (RFS). The analysis was carried out using an eclectic research strategy that used several different statistical techniques to evaluate hypotheses drawn from the disciplines of economics demography and sociology. The 11 chapters cover the following: demographic change and socioeconomic development in rural Egypt--both findings and policy; characteristics and policy of the Egyptian population; analytical perspectives on population (the Easterlin synthesis alternative views of children in household decision making alternative economic views of children and the quagmire of causation and statistical inference in population analysis); an overview of rural Egyptian society; determinants of completed family size in rural Egypt; further dimensions of Egyptian fertility and mortality; family planning prospects and problems (use of modern contraceptive methods children ever born and contraceptive use and desired family size); the effects of education on fertility (wifes education and age at 1st marriage children ever born pregnancy loss and child mortality attitudes toward fertility and family and contraceptive use); objectives scope organization and activities of the population and development project; and demographic research in Egypt (scope and constraints priority research questions data requirements and modeling and statistical analysis). The main research findings can be summarized by considering 4 broad questions about rural Egypt: why are families so large; how will socioeconomic development affect population growth; why are contraceptive prevalence rates so low; and what is the likely impact of programs that integrate family planning and socioeconomic development. Desired number of children (DNC) declined with socioeconomic development. In particular DNC declined with increases in male and female education with increases in age at 1st marriage with the ownership of personal assets and electricity and was invariant to ownership of real assets. Child deaths (C) in contrast were largely independent of these household attributes. Use of contraceptive methods increased with socioeconomic development but the form of that development may be important. Children ever born derived largely from the net impact of these 3 influences.