Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes.
Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes.
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DOI：
10.1002/2014ja020238
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发表时间：
2014-10
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Balikhin, M. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pakhotin, I. P.;Drozdov, A. Y.;Shprits, Y. Y.;Boynton, R. J.;Subbotin, D. A.;Balikhin, M. A.
这项研究提出了外辐射带高能电子通量预测的数据驱动和物理驱动方法的融合。数据驱动的 NARMAX（具有 eXogenous 输入的非线性自回归移动平均）模型预测地球同步轨道通量已被用作驱动基于物理的多功能电子辐射带 (VERB) 代码的外部边界条件，以模拟外部辐射带环境中的高能电子通量。耦合系统已经过三个延长时间段的测试，总计数周的观察。这些时间段涉及安静、中等和强烈的地磁活动时期，并捕获了一系列典型的辐射带动态。该模型成功模拟了各种磁层条件下的高能电子通量。讨论了可能导致模型结果与观察结果之间差异的物理机制。
This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.