Ensemble numerical forecasts of the sporadic Kuroshio water intrusion (kyucho) into shelf and coastal waters
Ensemble numerical forecasts of the sporadic Kuroshio water intrusion (kyucho) into shelf and coastal waters
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DOI：
10.1007/s10236-011-0519-z
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发表时间：
2012-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
A. Isobe;Shin’ichiro Kako;Xinyu Guo;H. Takeoka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Isobe;Shin’ichiro Kako;Xinyu Guo;H. Takeoka
利用日本沿海海洋可预报性试验（JCOPE2）提供的有限体积沿海海洋模式降尺度海洋再分析和预报数据，对2010年丰后海峡以南锋面波放大引起的黑潮突发性入侵事件（kyucho）进行了预报。两个月的后报计算给出了接下来的3个月预报计算的初始条件，该计算由10个集合成员组成。这10个成员计算的温度时间序列的平均值进行比较，实际观察到的丰后海峡，在那里突然的温度上升相关的kyucho事件是显着的2月，8月和9月。总的来说，这几个月实际观测到的强烈kyucho事件是成功预测的。然而，强烈的kyucho事件预测频繁在5月至6月期间，即使强烈kyucho事件在此期间在实际的海洋缺席。建议目前的降尺度预报模式需要可靠的侧边界条件提供的JCOPE2资料，大量的Argo资料同化，以提高精度。此外，模式的准确性似乎也会因为小涡旋沿陆架坡折沿着移动而降低。
The finite volume coastal ocean model downscaling ocean reanalysis and forecast data provided by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment (JCOPE2) are used to forecast sudden Kuroshio water intrusion events (kyucho) induced by frontal waves amplified south of the Bungo Channel in 2010. Two-month hindcast computations give initial conditions of the following 3-month forecasts computations which consist of ten ensemble members. The temperature time series computed by these ten members are averaged to compare with that actually observed in the Bungo Channel, where sudden temperature rises related to kyucho events are remarkable in February, August, and September. Overall, the intense kyucho events actually observed in these months are predicted successfully. However, intense kyucho events are forecasted frequently during the period of May through June even though intense kyucho events are absent during this period in the actual ocean. It is suggested that the present downscaling forecast model requires reliable lateral boundary conditions provided by JCOPE2 data to which numerous Argo data are assimilated to enhance the accuracy. In addition, it seems likely that the model accuracy is reduced by small eddies moving along the shelf break.