Car Trip Generation Models in the Developing World: Data Issues and Spatial Transferability
Car Trip Generation Models in the Developing World: Data Issues and Spatial Transferability
复制标题
发展中国家的汽车出行生成模型：数据问题和空间可转移性
DOI：
10.1007/s40890-019-0075-7
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
and Sanko Nobuhiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bwambale Andrew;Choudhury Charisma F.;and Sanko Nobuhiro
在许多发展中国家，很难进行大规模的家庭旅行调查，以收集旅行行为模式估计和应用的数据。本文重点讨论了该问题的两个候选解决方案：（1）开发可用于预测的模型，使用为其他目的收集的二级数据，包括社会人口统计信息，但不包括交通特定信息，如汽车和/或过境通行证所有权（例如人口普查，公共健康记录等），(2)“借用”一个使用同一地区类似城市数据开发的模型。在第一种方法中，我们研究了开发汽车出行生成模型的可行性，该模型将汽车拥有量变量与估计的汽车拥有倾向相关联。拟议的框架在东非两个城市内罗毕和达累斯萨拉姆得到应用。估计结果表明，对于这两个城市，所提出的方法优于模型，排除汽车拥有量变量。在第二种方法中，我们研究了在两个城市之间的第一种方法中开发的模型的空间可转移性，以评估在没有本地模型的情况下，是否有理由将模型从一个发展中国家应用到另一个发展中国家。结果表明，虽然两个城市之间的一些估计参数并没有显着不同，统计检验不支持所有的模型从内罗毕到达累斯萨拉姆或反之亦然的直接转移。然而，有趣的是，简单的模型（不包括汽车所有权）优于模型与估算汽车所有权倾向的可转让性。这些研究结果提供了有用的见解，在数据限制下，这实际上是非常有用的发展中国家的旅行生成模型的发展。
In many countries of the developing world, it is difficult to conduct large-scale household travel surveys to collect data for travel behaviour model estimation and application. This paper focuses on two candidate solutions to the problem: (1) developing models that can be applied for prediction using secondary data collected for other purposes and include socio-demographic information but do not include transport specific information such as the car and/or transit pass ownership (e.g. census, public health records, etc.), (2) ‘borrowing’ a model developed using data from a similar city within the same region. In the first approach, we investigate the feasibility of developing car trip generation models which imputes the car ownership variable with estimated car ownership propensities. The proposed framework is applied in two East African cities, Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam. The estimation results indicate that for both cities the proposed approach outperforms the models that exclude the car ownership variable. In the second approach, we investigate the spatial transferability of the models developed in the first approach between the two cities to evaluate if it is justified to apply models from one developing country to another in the absence of local models. Results indicate that though some of the estimated parameters are not significantly different from each other between the two cities, statistical tests do not support direct transferability of all the models from Nairobi to Dar-es-Salaam or vice versa. However, interestingly, the simpler model (which excludes car-ownership) outperforms the model with imputed car ownership propensity in terms of transferability. These findings provide useful insights into the development of trip generation models under data constraints which can practically be very useful for developing countries.