The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane, Australia
The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane, Australia
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1369
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Tong, Shilu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Cunrui;Barnett, Adrian G.;Tong, Shilu
温度是健康的一个重要决定因素。更好地了解温度如何影响人口健康不仅对科学界很重要，而且对制定和实施预警系统和干预战略以减轻极端温度对健康影响的决策者也很重要。温度与健康的关系也越来越受到关注，因为气候变化预计会使整体温度分布升高（3，4）。以前的研究已经检查了与温度相关的死亡率的相对风险，但寿命损失的绝对测量也很有用，因为它结合了死亡人数和预期寿命。在这里，我们使用年寿命损失提供了一个新的措施，温度对死亡率的影响，在布里斯班，澳大利亚。我们还预测了未来因气候变化而丧失的与温度有关的寿命年数。我们发现，温度和寿命损失之间的关联是U形的，增加了寿命损失的寒冷和炎热的温度。如果未来的气候变化超过2摄氏度，并且没有任何对更高温度的适应，与温度相关的寿命损失将大大恶化。这项研究强调，公共卫生必须适应气候变化。
Temperature is an important determinant of health. A better knowledge of how temperature affects population health is important not only to the scientific community, but also to the decision-makers who develop and implement early warning systems and intervention strategies to mitigate the health effects of extreme temperatures(1,2). The temperature-health relationship is also of growing interest as climate change is projected to shift the overall temperature distribution higher(3,4). Previous studies have examined the relative risks of temperature-related mortality, but the absolute measure of years of life lost is also useful as it combines the number of deaths with life expectancy. Here we use years of life lost to provide a novel measure of the impact of temperature on mortality in Brisbane, Australia. We also project the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. We show that the association between temperature and years of life lost is U-shaped, with increased years of life lost for cold and hot temperatures. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 degrees C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. This study highlights that public health adaptation to climate change is necessary.