Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction
Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7
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发表时间：
2012-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Adam A. Scaife;T. Spangehl;D. Fereday;U. Cubasch;U. Langematz;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adam A. Scaife;T. Spangehl;D. Fereday;U. Cubasch;U. Langematz;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke
气候变化预计将增加许多温带地区的冬季降雨量和洪水，因为蒸发和降雨率增加，风暴变得更加强烈，风暴路径向极地移动。在这里，我们展示了平流层环流的变化如何通过对流层环流的额外转移在温带以外地区未来的气候变化中发挥重要作用。环流的这种变化改变了区域冬季降雨量的气候变化，其程度足以显著改变区域气候变化预测。这些变化与平流层风的变化一致，导致对流层深处的斜压涡旋增长率发生变化。与平流层分辨率较低的模式相比，平均风结构的变化和对流层风暴路径的赤道移位允许与地面气候耦合。以大西洋风暴路径为例，我们展示了与其他当前的气候预测相比，这如何可以使西欧和中欧冬季极端降雨量的预测增加一倍。
Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and anequatorwardshift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections.