Probabilistic performance assessment of power distribution infrastructure under wind events
Probabilistic performance assessment of power distribution infrastructure under wind events
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DOI：
10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.05.041
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发表时间：
2019-10
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Yee Er Teoh;A. Alipour;A. Cancelli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yee Er Teoh;A. Alipour;A. Cancelli
电力输送基础设施直接有助于基本的社会功能、经济和总体生活质量。最近的极端风事件，如飓风厄玛和玛丽亚，以及最近的飓风迈克尔导致停电，影响了数百万客户，并导致整个社区的重大社会和经济中断。停电时间越长，造成的损失越大。事实证明，配电系统对此类事件非常脆弱，90%的停电都是由配电系统造成的。配电结构是根据安全标准建造的，以确保资产在运行和极端条件下的安全，但风荷载的动态性质往往被忽视或只考虑经验。因此，在本文中，这些影响被包含在一个全面的风险知情框架中，以评估配电组件的性能。这种方法明确地说明了在预测组件响应时不可避免的不确定性。重点是表征风事件和电力系统物理组件的组件级风险分析。为此，对一个电力极-导体系统进行了建模，其中风事件被模拟为沿极和导体高度的一维多变量随机过程。以三秒峰值阵风风速作为建模参考。提出了一个概率框架来估计不同老化机制下配电杆的容量。然后用有限元法计算了配电杆在模拟风速作用下的响应。生成易损性函数来估计不同损伤状态下的超过概率。实施了一套减灾战略、相关成本和估计效益，并生成了改进的要素脆弱性函数。概率寿命周期成本分析用于评估配电系统不同组件投资的长期效益。
The electric power delivery infrastructure directly contributes to essential societal functions, the economy, and the general quality of life. Recent extreme wind events, such as Hurricanes Irma and Maria, and more recently Hurricane Michael resulted in power outages that affected millions of customers and led to major social and economic disruptions throughout communities. The longer the outage duration, the greater the incurred losses. Power distribution systems have proven to be highly vulnerable to such events and responsible for 90% of the outages. Distribution structures are built according to safety standards to ensure the safety of assets in operational and extreme conditions, but the dynamic nature of the wind loading is often overlooked or only considered empirically. Therefore, in this paper, such effects are included in a comprehensive risk-informed framework to assess the performance of electric power distribution components. This methodology explicitly accounts for the inevitable uncertainty in predictions of the component response. The focus is on characterizing wind events and the component-level risk analysis of physical components of the electric power system. For this purpose, a power pole–conductor system is modeled in which wind events are simulated as one-dimensional multivariable stochastic processes along the height of the poles and the conductors. Three-second peak gust wind speeds are used as a modeling reference. A probabilistic framework is developed to estimate the capacity of the distribution poles under different aging mechanisms. The response of the power distribution poles due to the simulated wind speeds is then computed using a finite element analysis. Fragility functions are generated to estimate the probability of exceedance for different damage states. A set of hazard mitigation strategies, the associated costs, and estimated benefits are implemented, and the improved fragility functions for elements are generated. A probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis is used to assess the long-term benefits of investing in different components of the power distribution system.