Key drivers of the rebound trend of China's CO(2)emissions
Key drivers of the rebound trend of China's CO(2)emissions
复制标题
中国CO(2)排放量回升趋势的主要驱动因素
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aba1bf
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Wang Can
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Yaxin;Zheng Xinzhu;Cai Wenjia;Liu Yuan;Luo Huilin;Guo Kaidi;Bu Chujie;Li Jin;Wang Can
2013-2016年，中国CO 2 排放量下降了5.1%，中国经济进入了新的发展时期，经济由投入和投资拉动的高速增长转向创新和消费拉动的中速增长。然而，跌势并未持续； 2016年以来全国CO 2 排放量出现反弹，但反弹的驱动因素尚不明确。在这里，我们应用投入产出结构分解分析来分解2002-2017年的排放量，以揭示排放量反弹趋势的驱动因素。研究结果表明，随着中国进入“新常态”发展模式，部门投入产出结构（部分反映生产结构）和需求格局对减排做出了贡献。然而，这两个因素发生逆转，从而诱发排放，分别贡献了2015年以来排放增量的5.2%和0.1%。这种明显的贡献逆转可以解释为新一轮基础设施刺激大量能源消耗，而电力需求主要由煤电（59.0%）支撑。此外，能源结构的减排效果从2012-2015年的−11.8%下降到2015-2017年的−6.9%，这与可再生能源增长放缓、煤炭消费略有回升密切相关。研究结果可以合理地推断出遏制中国排放趋势潜在逆转、使中国CO 2 排放趋势与2030年前实现排放峰值的目标相一致的新见解。
China's CO 2 emissions declined by 5.1% in 2013–2016 as China steps into a new period of development, in which the economy shifts from the previous high-speed growth driven by input and investment to a medium-speed growth driven by innovation and consumption. However, the decline did not continue; the national CO 2 emissions rebounded since 2016, with the drivers of the rebound unclear. Here, we apply the input–output structure decomposition analysis to decompose emissions in 2002–2017 to reveal driving factors of the emission rebound trend. Results show that the input–output structure among sectors (partially reflecting production structure) and the demand pattern have contributed to emission reduction as China entering'the new normal'pattern of development. However, the two factors reversed and therefore induced emissions, contributing to 5.2% and 0.1% of the increase in emissions since 2015. Such obvious contribution reversal can be explained as a new round of infrastructure stimulated substantial energy consumption and the electricity demand was mainly supported by coal-fired power (59.0%). Besides, the emission reduction effect of the energy mix has shrunk from− 11.8% in 2012–2015 to− 6.9% in 2015–2017, closely related to the slowing growth of renewable energy and the slight recovery of coal consumption. The findings can reasonably infer novel insights into curbing the potential reversal of China's emission trend and aligning China's CO 2 emission trend with the goal of achieving peak emissions before 2030.