Estimation and Accuracy after Model Selection.

Estimation and Accuracy after Model Selection.
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DOI:
10.1080/01621459.2013.823775
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发表时间:
2014-07-01
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Efron B
Efron B
中科院分区:
数学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Efron B

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经典统计理论在评估估计精度时忽略了模型选择。在这里,我们考虑bootstrap方法计算标准误差和置信区间,考虑模型选择。该方法包括装袋,也称为自举平滑,以驯服基于选择的估计不稳定的不连续性。一个有用的新公式的准确性装袋,然后提供了标准误差的平滑估计。两个例子,非参数和参数,进行了详细的:回归模型的程度(线性,二次,立方,.)的选择是由Cp标准,和基于Lasso的估计问题。
Classical statistical theory ignores model selection in assessing estimation accuracy. Here we consider bootstrap methods for computing standard errors and confidence intervals that take model selection into account. The methodology involves bagging, also known as bootstrap smoothing, to tame the erratic discontinuities of selection-based estimators. A useful new formula for the accuracy of bagging then provides standard errors for the smoothed estimators. Two examples, nonparametric and parametric, are carried through in detail: a regression model where the choice of degree (linear, quadratic, cubic, …) is determined by the Cp criterion, and a Lasso-based estimation problem.
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发表时间: 1991-03-01
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发表时间: 2012-10-01
期刊: The annals of applied statistics
影响因子: --
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