MULTIVARIATE MODELS FOR BEHAVIORAL OFFENDER PROFILING OF JAPANESE HOMICIDE
MULTIVARIATE MODELS FOR BEHAVIORAL OFFENDER PROFILING OF JAPANESE HOMICIDE
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DOI：
10.1177/0093854812458425
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Otsuka, Yusuke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fujita, Goro;Watanabe, Kazumi;Otsuka, Yusuke
虽然许多研究已经进行了杀人犯的行为侧写，这些都没有经验表明，这种技术具有科学的有效性和可靠的准确性。本研究以839件日本杀人案为研究对象，建构多元逻辑回归模型，以推断犯罪人的性别、年龄、陌生人、犯罪记录、单一犯罪人、有组织犯罪成员、居住地等特征。我们用十重交叉验证程序和受试者工作特征（ROC）分析评估了有效性。结果表明，ROC曲线下面积范围为0.70至0.87，表明中等和足够的准确性。这种多元方法对于降低成本并最大限度地减少调查早期阶段的错误非常有用，特别是对于拥有大型凶杀案数据库的司法管辖区。
Although many studies have been conducted on behavioral profiling of homicide offenders, none of these have empirically shown that this technique has scientific validity and solid accuracy. Based on data from 839 Japanese homicide cases, we constructed multivariate logistic regression models to infer offenders' characteristics of sex, age, stranger offender, criminal record, single offender, member of organized crime, and residential area. We evaluated validity with a tenfold cross-validation procedure and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The results indicated that the area under the ROC curve ranged from .70 to .87, suggesting moderate and sufficient accuracy. Such a multivariate approach would be useful to reduce costs and minimize errors in the early stages of an investigation, especially for jurisdictions that possess large homicide databases.