Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model
Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model
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DOI：
10.1109/igarss.2004.1369843
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发表时间：
2004-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chunyang He;Yaozhong Pan;P. Shi;Xiaobing Li;Jin Chen;Yuechen Li;Jinggang Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chunyang He;Yaozhong Pan;P. Shi;Xiaobing Li;Jin Chen;Yuechen Li;Jinggang Li
模拟典型区域土地利用情景变化及其对生态系统结构和功能的潜在影响，有助于理解土地利用系统与生态系统的相互作用机制。将系统动力学(SD)模型和元胞自动机(CA)模型相结合，建立了土地利用情景动态模型，模拟了中国北部未来20年的土地利用情景变化。土地利用情景模型的基本思想是先用SD模型模拟土地利用情景需求，然后利用CA模型在考虑土地利用适宜性、继承性和邻里效应的情况下，在局部尺度上配置土地利用情景模式，以满足土地利用情景需求与供给的平衡。中国北部土地利用系统变化模型的应用表明，该模型在一定程度上反映了土地利用系统在不同尺度上的复杂行为，是评价土地利用系统对生态系统潜在影响的有效工具。此外，模拟结果还表明，未来20年，中国北部农牧交错带的土地利用将发生明显变化，其中耕地和城市用地是最活跃的土地利用类型。
Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system. A Land Use Scenario Dynamics (LUSD) model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use scenario changes in northern China in the next 20 years simulated in this paper. The basic idea of LUSD model is to simulate the land use scenario demands by using SD model at first, then allocate the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using CA model to satisfy the balance between land use scenario demands and supply. The application of LUSD model in northern China suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system at different scales to some extent and is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecological system. In addition, the simulated results also indicate that obvious land use changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China in the next 20 years with cultivated land and urban land being the most active land use types.