Estimating the Economic Impact of Political Party Competition in the 1992 British Election
Estimating the Economic Impact of Political Party Competition in the 1992 British Election
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估计 1992 年英国大选中政党竞争的经济影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Michael C. Herron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael C. Herron
政府的党派之争。研究政府党派之争后果的研究人员面临的主要问题是，很难确定由于选举失败而从未存在的政府的潜在经济影响。例如，1992年英国的工党政府，1997年的保守党政府，或美国的多尔政府。这些政府都没有真正上台，出于显而易见的原因，这阻碍了对它们将对各自国家经济产生什么影响的分析。在这里，我提出了一种方法，旨在估计一个选举失败的政党如果上台将会造成的经济影响。我特别关注1992年的英国政体，并论证了在竞选期间，总部设在伦敦的公开交易证券的价格可以用来估计在1992年工党获胜的条件下，英国经济预计会发生什么。这些估计显示，与获胜的保守党相比，英国投资者预计1992年工党政府带来的利率大幅上升，股市低迷。这些结果表明，1992年工党和保守党的差距很大，相对于保守党，工党是真正的左翼。市场交易证券的价格，表面上看是非政治变量，可以传达很多关于政党、选举竞争和政府党派之争的后果。例如，假设伦敦股市在1992年英国大选期间异常波动，并在投票日和保守党获胜后大幅上涨。根据分析AP-
quences of government partisanship. major problem facing researchers who study the consequences of government partisanship is that it is difficult to ascertain the potential economic impact of governments which, because of election defeats, never existed. Consider, for instance, a Labour government in Britain in 1992, a Conservative government in 1997, or a Dole Administration in the United States. None of these governments actually took office, and, for obvious reasons, this impedes analysis of what effects they would have had on their respective national economies. Here, I present a methodology designed to estimate the economic impact that an election-losing party would have caused had it achieved office. I focus in particular on the 1992 British polity and demonstrate that campaign-period prices of London-based, publicly traded securities can be used to estimate what was expected to have happened in the British economy conditional on a 1992 Labour victory. The estimates show that a Labour government in 1992 was expected by British investors to have ushered in significantly higher interest rates and depressed stock markets compared to those witnessed under the victorious Conservative Party. These results imply that the Labour-Conservative disparity in 1992 was substantial and that, relative to the Conservative Party, Labour was truly left-wing. Prices of market-traded securities, ostensibly nonpolitical variables, can convey a great deal about political parties, electoral competition, and the consequences of government partisanship. Suppose, for example, that prices in London stock markets were unusually volatile during the 1992 British election campaign and that they jumped dramatically following polling day and the Conservative victory. According to the analytical ap-