Multicenter external validation of two malignancy risk prediction models in patients undergoing 18F-FDG-PET for solitary pulmonary nodule evaluation
Multicenter external validation of two malignancy risk prediction models in patients undergoing 18F-FDG-PET for solitary pulmonary nodule evaluation
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DOI：
10.1007/s00330-016-4580-3
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Montemezzi, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Perandini, Simone;Soardi, G. A.;Montemezzi, S.
实现Herder和贝叶斯推断恶性肿瘤计算器（BIMC）模型的多中心外部验证。这项多中心回顾性研究纳入了从四家大医院收集的259例孤立性肺结节（spn），并进行了18-FDG-PET鉴定。对所有可用病变进行Herder模型测试（A组）。采用180个spn亚组（B组）对Herder模型和BIMC模型进行无偏比较。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）分析来评估诊断的准确性。采用英国胸科学会（BTS）指南中规定的风险阈值进行决策分析。B组进行无偏比较，Herder模型的ROC AUC为0.807 (95% CI 0.742-0.862)， BIMC模型的ROC AUC为0.822 （95% CI 0.758-0.875）。Herder模型和BIMC模型在多中心外部病例系列试验中均被证明能准确预测恶性肿瘤的风险。基于更有利的决策分析，BIMC模型似乎具有优势。Herder模型在180个spn上的ROC AUC为0.807。BIMC模型在180个SPNs上的ROC AUC为0.822。欧元决策分析更有利于BIMC模型。
To achieve multicentre external validation of the Herder and Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) models.Two hundred and fifty-nine solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) collected from four major hospitals which underwent 18-FDG-PET characterization were included in this multicentre retrospective study. The Herder model was tested on all available lesions (group A). A subgroup of 180 SPNs (group B) was used to provide unbiased comparison between the Herder and BIMC models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic accuracy. Decision analysis was performed by adopting the risk threshold stated in British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines.Unbiased comparison performed In Group B showed a ROC AUC for the Herder model of 0.807 (95 % CI 0.742-0.862) and for the BIMC model of 0.822 (95 % CI 0.758-0.875).Both the Herder and the BIMC models were proven to accurately predict the risk of malignancy when tested on a large multicentre external case series. The BIMC model seems advantageous on the basis of a more favourable decision analysis.aEuro cent The Herder model showed a ROC AUC of 0.807 on 180 SPNs.aEuro cent The BIMC model showed a ROC AUC of 0.822 on 180 SPNs.aEuro cent Decision analysis is more favourable to the BIMC model.