Modeling the role of rainfall patterns in seasonal malaria transmission
Modeling the role of rainfall patterns in seasonal malaria transmission
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0230-6
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Bomblies, Arne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bomblies, Arne
众所周知，季节性总降水量会影响疟疾传播，因为蚊子依赖于积水作为繁殖栖息地。然而，降雨的季节内时间模式影响积水的持久性，因此降雨模式也会影响水有限环境中的蚊子种群动态。在这里，使用数值模拟，我表明，季节内降雨模式占39%的变异，在模拟蚊子丰度的尼日尔萨赫勒地区的疟疾是地方病，但高度季节性。我申请一个现场验证耦合水文和昆虫学模型。使用合成降雨时间序列产生的一个固定的一阶马尔可夫链模型，我持有的所有变量，但每小时降雨量不变，从而隔离的贡献，降雨模式的蚊子丰度的方差。我进一步展示了利用地形水文建模的效用，通过分析收集的水来评估降水的影响。池的时间积分表面积解释了70%的方差在模拟蚊子丰度从一个机械模型，和池持续时间超过7天的时间积分表面积解释了82%的方差。使用水文模型输出的相关性解释了蚊子丰度的变化，而不是降雨总量的60%。我扩展这种分析，调查气候变化的情况下，疟疾病媒蚊子种群的影响，保持除降水量不变的所有气候变量。在这些情况下，降雨量的平均值和方差随气候变化而变化，建模方法评估了降雨的非平稳性和相关的降雨模式对预期蚊子活动的影响。
Seasonal total precipitation is well known to affect malaria transmission because mosquitoes depend on standing water for breeding habitat. However, the within-season temporal pattern of the rainfall influences persistence of standing water and thus rainfall patterns can also affect mosquito population dynamics in water-limited environments. Here, using a numerical simulation, I show that intraseasonal rainfall pattern accounts for 39% of the variance in simulated mosquito abundance in a Niger Sahel village where malaria is endemic but highly seasonal. I apply a field validated coupled hydrology and entomology model. Using synthetic rainfall time series generated using a stationary first-order Markov Chain model, I hold all variables except hourly rainfall constant, thus isolating the contribution of rainfall pattern to variance in mosquito abundance. I further show the utility of hydrology modeling using topography to assess precipitation effects by analyzing collected water. Time-integrated surface area of pools explains 70% of the variance in simulated mosquito abundance from a mechanistic model, and time-integrated surface area of pools persisting longer than 7 days explains 82% of the variance. Correlations using the hydrology model output explain more variance in mosquito abundance than the 60% from rainfall totals. I extend this analysis to investigate the impacts of this effect on malaria vector mosquito populations under climate shift scenarios, holding all climate variables except precipitation constant. In these scenarios, rainfall mean and variance change with climatic change, and the modeling approach evaluates the impact of non-stationarity in rainfall and the associated rainfall patterns on expected mosquito activity.