A stability index for thunderstorm forecasting
A stability index for thunderstorm forecasting
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DOI：
10.1175/1520-0477-34.6.250
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发表时间：
1953-06
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
A. Showalter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Showalter
在世界上的许多地区，一年四季都需要一种简单的工具，可以快速检查雷暴的可能性。作为预测南加州罕见雷暴的辅助工具，作者于1946年开发了稳定性指数计算图。从那时起，它已经在美国西南部的气象局和航空气象学家进行了广泛的测试。在过去的几年里，美国中西部的气象学家对它进行了测试。S.空军气象学家福布什和米勒在俄克拉荷马州的廷克菲尔德[1]。所有广泛测试过该指数的人都表示，它是一个非常重要但并不完美的预测工具。落基山脉的气象学家发现，使用700兆的数据开发一个类似的指数是可取的。任何预报辅助手段都必须与判断一起使用，在这种情况下，必须对所有可以预期的平流变化进行通常的内插和外推。该图表是根据以下基本但高度相关的考虑因素制定的。我们相信雷暴最有可能在下列数项或全部条件同时存在时形成：
IN many sections of the world there is a yearround or seasonal need for a simple tool which can provide a quick check on the possibility of thunderstorms. As an aid in anticipating the infrequent thunderstorms of southern California the Stability Index Computation Chart, was developed by the author in 1946. Since then it has been tested extensively in the southwestern part of the United States by Weather Bureau and air-line meteorologists. During the past several years it has been tested by meteorologists in central and western U. S. and by the Air Force meteorologists Fawbush and Miller at Tinker Field, Oklahoma [1]. All who have tested the index extensively have indicated that it is a highly significant but not perfect forecast tool. Rocky Mountain meteorologists have found it desirable to develop a similar index using 700-mb data. Any forecasting aid has to be used with judgment, and in this case the usual interpolations and extrapolations must be made for all advective changes which can be anticipated. The Chart was developed on the basis of the following elementary yet highly relevant considerations. It is believed that thunderstorms are most likely to form when several or all of the following conditions exist:—